Imagined Future Scenarios
Tourism, Probable Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'I commuted by helicopter in New York City. It was convenient and luxurious, but I can see why some locals hate the flights.' - Business Insider
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social mobility and access to destinations fuel tourism growth, exacerbating inequalities between those able and unable to participate.
Technological Impact: Technological advances further optimize air mobility, leading to more efficient vehicles and infrastructure, but also increasing technological dependence.
Ecological Impact: Increased air traffic significantly contributes to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions despite technological improvements.
Economic Impact: Air mobility fuels a boom in tourism and related industries, creating jobs and wealth but increasing economic vulnerability to disruptions.
Political Impact: Governments struggle to regulate the rapidly expanding air mobility sector, facing lobbying pressure and challenges in infrastructure development.
Narrative: Air mobility democratizes travel initially, but unchecked growth leads to environmental issues and widening socioeconomic gaps in access.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: System breakdown leads to social unrest and unequal access to essential services due to reliance on collapsed air mobility network.
Technological Impact: Degradation of essential technological systems like the universal air traffic control network due to neglect, resource depletion, or cyberattacks.
Ecological Impact: Pollution from grounded vehicles and abandoned infrastructure degrades urban environments, contributing to ecological degradation.
Economic Impact: Economic activity grinds to a halt as tourism and related industries collapse, triggering widespread unemployment and poverty.
Political Impact: Governments are unable to maintain order or provide essential services, leading to political instability and societal fragmentation.
Narrative: The air mobility network's fragility is exposed, leading to its catastrophic collapse and widespread societal disruption after a major event (economic crisis, war, pandemic).
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Social control is enhanced as citizen movement is monitored and regulated through the air mobility network to ensure order and compliance.
Technological Impact: Technological innovation is directed towards enhanced surveillance, security, and centralized control of the air mobility system.
Ecological Impact: Strict environmental regulations are imposed on air traffic and related industries to minimize ecological impact, with heavy penalties for non-compliance.
Economic Impact: Centralized control allows for efficient resource allocation and economic stability, albeit potentially at the cost of innovation and individual freedom.
Political Impact: A strong centralized authority exerts absolute control over the air mobility network, using it as a tool for social and political governance.
Narrative: A powerful governing entity tightly controls air mobility, prioritizing social order, environmental sustainability, and economic stability at the expense of individual autonomy.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Air mobility fosters decentralization and community-based solutions, supporting more localized and sustainable forms of tourism and interaction.
Technological Impact: New technologies emerge, shifting focus to alternative fuels, hyper-efficient and localized vehicles, and decentralized air traffic management systems.
Ecological Impact: Emphasis shifts to restorative urban design and utilizing the air mobility network to support ecological regeneration and pollution mitigation.
Economic Impact: A circular economy emerges, promoting local production, sharing of resources, and more equitable distribution of air mobility access and benefits.
Political Impact: Local communities gain control over their airspace and air mobility systems, fostering a bottom-up approach to governance and development.
Narrative: Driven by ecological and social awareness, air mobility transforms into a decentralized, sustainable, and democratically controlled system, fostering localized and responsible practices.
