Imagined Future Scenarios
Political Science, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from '13 Essential Early Expanse Episodes to Stream While You Can' - Gizmodo.com
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased national pride and technological optimism boost societal cohesion in successful acquirer nations.
Technological Impact: Advancements in salvage, repurposing, and control technologies spur a new space-based industrial sector.
Ecological Impact: Increased space debris from failed salvage attempts and operational satellites exacerbates orbital pollution.
Economic Impact: A satellite scavenging gold rush stimulates economic growth in participating nations but risks resource overexploitation.
Political Impact: Greater power disparities emerge between nations controlling strategic satellite assets, increasing global instability.
Narrative: Dominating space debris becomes the new arms race, with national economies fueled by the conquest of defunct satellite hardware.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread disruption and loss of communication systems create social unrest and erode trust in governments.
Technological Impact: Degradation of satellite constellations leads to the failure of essential services dependent on them.
Ecological Impact: Uncontrolled crashes of defunct satellites cause unpredictable localized environmental damage and potential human casualties.
Economic Impact: Global economic recession triggered by the collapse of satellite-dependent infrastructure and supply chains.
Political Impact: State failure in nations heavily reliant on space infrastructure leads to regional conflicts and humanitarian crises.
Narrative: A cascading failure of critical satellite infrastructure plunges the world into technological darkness, triggering societal and economic breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: International agreements enforce strict rules and regulations on satellite decommissioning and salvage operations.
Technological Impact: Development of advanced technologies for safe satellite disposal and orbit cleanup is prioritized and globally shared.
Ecological Impact: Stringent protocols minimize space debris and mitigate the environmental impact of satellite operations and disposal.
Economic Impact: A globally regulated space economy ensures equitable access to space resources under strict sustainability standards.
Political Impact: A powerful international organization enforces space law and governs satellite-related activities with binding authority.
Narrative: A global consortium takes control of all orbital assets, meticulously managing space activities to prevent further escalation and ensure long-term stability.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift in values towards de-growth and a greater understanding of the interconnectedness of Earth and space promote sustainable practices.
Technological Impact: Development of autonomous, self-replicating orbital cleanup systems and sustainable in-space resource utilization technologies.
Ecological Impact: A closed-loop space economy eliminates space debris and restores the orbital environment to a pristine state.
Economic Impact: The emergence of a collaborative, circular space economy fosters innovation and shared prosperity.
Political Impact: New forms of transnational governance based on planetary stewardship and ethical space exploration emerge.
Narrative: Humanity transcends nationalistic ambitions and embraces a collaborative vision for space, transforming defunct satellites into opportunities for a sustainable future.
