Imagined Future Scenarios
Economics, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Banks’ Three Wishes For The Holidays' - Forbes
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased economic inequality due to slowed consolidation of financial power.
Technological Impact: Fintech innovation bypasses traditional banking, reducing reliance on mergers.
Ecological Impact: Continued high resource consumption due to unfettered growth despite banking sector changes.
Economic Impact: Moderate economic slowdown due to reduced banking sector efficiency from fewer mergers.
Political Impact: Populist backlash against perceived financial sector stagnation and lack of competition.
Narrative: Continued economic growth despite a slightly less consolidated banking sector, fueled by technological innovation and high consumption.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest due to economic stagnation and financial instability.
Technological Impact: Technological stagnation as investment dries up amid financial crisis.
Ecological Impact: Environmental degradation accelerates due to lack of investment in sustainable practices.
Economic Impact: Severe economic depression triggered by banking sector fragility and lack of mergers for strength.
Political Impact: Political instability, potentially authoritarianism, in response to societal breakdown.
Narrative: A financial crisis stemming from reduced bank mergers triggers a wider economic collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Increased social control and economic planning to optimize resource allocation.
Technological Impact: Technological development focuses on efficiency and stability, rather than innovation.
Ecological Impact: Environmental regulations are strictly enforced leading to sustainable practices.
Economic Impact: Economic stability prioritized over growth resulting in a planned economy with managed banking.
Political Impact: Strong central state control that manages the banking sector to achieve social goals.
Narrative: A highly regulated and centrally planned economy emerges, with a stable but less dynamic banking sector.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Emergence of alternative financial systems based on trust and collaboration, potentially blockchain-based.
Technological Impact: Decentralized finance (DeFi) revolutionizes banking, reducing reliance on large institutions.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable finance practices become dominant as ecological concerns drive investment decisions.
Economic Impact: Economic restructuring occurs, shifting away from traditional banking towards decentralized finance.
Political Impact: Shift in power dynamics away from traditional financial institutions towards decentralized governance models.
Narrative: A paradigm shift towards decentralized finance transforms the banking landscape, rendering traditional mergers largely obsolete.
