Imagined Future Scenarios
Financial Technology, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from '£22bn for 'unproven' green tech could raise bills, MPs warn' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased greenwashing and skepticism as 'carbon-neutral' lifestyles become aspirational but potentially misleading.
Technological Impact: Incremental improvements in carbon capture technology and blockchain efficiency drive market expansion.
Ecological Impact: Limited genuine ecological benefit due to insufficient scaling and competing economic priorities.
Economic Impact: Significant growth in the green finance sector, attracting investments and creating new financial products.
Political Impact: Governments provide incentives and subsidies to encourage green bond issuance and carbon capture projects, fostering economic growth.
Narrative: Green bonds fuel a booming financial sector focused on carbon capture, but underlying ecological gains remain marginal against overall consumption growth.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Erosion of trust in financial institutions and carbon capture projects as performance metrics are manipulated or failures become apparent.
Technological Impact: Carbon capture technologies fail to meet projected storage capacities, undermining the value of associated bonds.
Ecological Impact: Widespread carbon capture failures exacerbate climate change, leading to ecological disasters and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: The green bond market collapses due to lack of investor confidence and project failures, leading to financial losses.
Political Impact: Government regulations fail to prevent fraud and mismanagement in carbon capture projects, triggering political instability.
Narrative: Ecological and financial crises erupt as carbon capture projects falter and green bonds prove to be empty promises, shattering investor confidence and accelerating environmental degradation.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Centralized control over carbon capture and related financial instruments fosters social inequality through selective investment and access.
Technological Impact: Standardization of carbon capture technology and verification processes under rigid regulatory frameworks.
Ecological Impact: Strictly managed carbon capture projects offer localized ecological improvements, monitored and enforced by governing bodies.
Economic Impact: Highly regulated carbon markets controlled by governments and international organizations stabilize green bond values.
Political Impact: Authoritarian governments utilize carbon capture projects for geopolitical leverage and control over carbon emissions targets.
Narrative: A global authority dictates carbon capture strategies and regulates green finance, ensuring emissions targets are met through centralized planning and strict enforcement, at the cost of individual liberties and local autonomy.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift towards valuing ecological well-being above pure economic gain fosters widespread adoption of sustainable practices.
Technological Impact: Breakthroughs in distributed carbon capture technologies empower local communities to participate in carbon sequestration.
Ecological Impact: Regenerative practices become mainstream, leading to significant ecological restoration and carbon drawdown.
Economic Impact: A circular economy model replaces linear consumption, reducing waste and creating new economic opportunities in sustainable technologies.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance structures prioritize environmental sustainability and equitable access to resources.
Narrative: A fundamental shift in values and technology leads to a decentralized, regenerative economy where carbon capture is integrated into harmonious ecosystems, driving true planetary healing and shared prosperity.