Imagined Future Scenarios
International Relations, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Is South Africa ‘confiscating land’, targeting some groups as Trump claims?' - Al Jazeera English
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Continued inequality fuels social unrest, managed through increased security and suppression.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements in resource extraction and manufacturing accelerate economic growth for a select few.
Ecological Impact: Environmental degradation worsens due to unchecked economic expansion and resource exploitation.
Economic Impact: Elite-driven economic growth continues, widening the gap between rich and poor with limited trickle-down effects.
Political Impact: Authoritarian governance becomes entrenched, maintaining stability through control and limiting dissent.
Narrative: A facade of prosperity hides growing inequality and ecological damage, ultimately unsustainable but momentarily booming.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social breakdown driven by resource scarcity, inequality, and conflict leads to mass migration and violence.
Technological Impact: Infrastructure deterioration and lack of investment cause technological regressions and system failures.
Ecological Impact: Environmental disasters worsen due to resource depletion, climate change impacts, and lack of environmental protection.
Economic Impact: Economic implosion occurs as investment dries up, supply chains collapse, and unemployment skyrockets.
Political Impact: Government loses legitimacy and control, leading to state failure and civil war.
Narrative: South Africa plunges into a deep crisis characterized by state failure, resource wars, and humanitarian catastrophe.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict social control implemented to maintain order and manage resources, limiting individual freedoms.
Technological Impact: Technology is used for extensive surveillance and control, restricting access and freedom of information.
Ecological Impact: Resource management becomes heavily regulated, prioritizing conservation but at the expense of economic freedom.
Economic Impact: The economy is centrally planned and controlled, focusing on resource allocation and production targets rather than profit.
Political Impact: Authoritarian rule becomes deeply entrenched, using technology and propaganda to maintain control.
Narrative: A new authoritarian regime imposes strict control over all aspects of life to stabilize the country and manage resources.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Grassroots social movements emerge, advocating for social justice, equality, and reconciliation.
Technological Impact: Decentralized technologies empower communities, fostering sustainable solutions and economic independence.
Ecological Impact: Focus shifts to restorative practices and sustainable development, prioritizing ecological regeneration.
Economic Impact: A circular economy based on local production, resource sharing, and equitable distribution emerges.
Political Impact: Bottom-up governance structures emerge, empowering communities and fostering participatory democracy.
Narrative: A profound societal transformation occurs as communities embrace sustainable practices, social justice, and inclusive governance.
