Imagined Future Scenarios
International Relations, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Tunisia’s revolution 14 years on: ‘The emperor has no clothes’' - Al Jazeera English
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Globalized hyper-consumerism fuels the dominance of transnational brand identities and superficial 'universal' values.
Technological Impact: Advanced AI-driven personalization tailors experiences, reinforcing transnational community affiliations based on niche product preferences.
Ecological Impact: Increased resource consumption from global supply chains accelerates environmental degradation, despite some efficiency gains.
Economic Impact: Multinational corporations wielding unprecedented power shape global economic policies, prioritizing profit over national interests.
Political Impact: Nation-states become increasingly irrelevant as regulatory power shifts to international bodies influenced by corporate interests.
Narrative: Corporate-defined globalism thrives, driven by technological advancements and unchecked consumerism, leaving national identities behind.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Fragmentation occurs as the absence of shared national identity leads to increased social unrest and competition for resources.
Technological Impact: Cyberattacks exploit the vulnerabilities of digitally connected transnational communities, eroding trust and creating social division.
Ecological Impact: Lack of coordinated international action on climate change results in devastating environmental disasters and mass migrations.
Economic Impact: The global economy falters as transnational structures collapse, leading to widespread unemployment and poverty.
Political Impact: Power vacuums emerge as nation-states fail, leading to the rise of regional warlords and extremist groups fighting for control.
Narrative: Without national cohesion or effective transnational governance, the world devolves into a chaotic struggle for survival amidst environmental and economic collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Transnational governance imposes a standardized global culture to maintain order and prevent conflict, suppressing diverse local traditions.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated surveillance technologies monitor and control citizens' adherence to globally mandated values and regulations.
Ecological Impact: Strict international regulations are enforced to mitigate climate change, limiting individual freedoms and economic growth.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned global economy aims to distribute resources equitably, but stifles innovation and entrepreneurship.
Political Impact: A world government enforces global laws, overriding national sovereignty in the name of stability and global citizenship.
Narrative: A world government takes control, enforcing global standards and regulations to maintain order and address global challenges at the cost of individual liberties and cultural diversity.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Individuals find deeper meaning and purpose in globally connected purpose-driven communities focused on solving shared challenges.
Technological Impact: Decentralized technologies empower individuals and local communities, fostering collaboration and innovation on a global scale.
Ecological Impact: A widespread adoption of sustainable practices regenerates ecosystems, driven by a shared understanding of planetary interdependence.
Economic Impact: A collaborative commons-based economy prioritizes well-being and sustainability over profit, fostering equitable resource distribution.
Political Impact: A global network of autonomous but interconnected communities promotes participatory governance and mutual support.
Narrative: A shift in consciousness and technology empowers individuals to create a globally interconnected and sustainable society based on shared values and collaborative action.
