Imagined Future Scenarios
International Relations, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Did Israel “win” the post-October 7 war?' - Vox
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequalities as some regions benefit from new oil production/distribution solutions while others are impacted by initial disruptions.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in drone counter-measures and alternative oil extraction technologies drive technological arms race.
Ecological Impact: Localized oil spills and increased energy consumption counteract initial reductions caused by disruptions.
Economic Impact: Short-term price spikes spur innovation and investment in alternative energy sources, ultimately benefiting some economies.
Political Impact: Established oil-producing nations reassert dominance through advanced technology and agreements with alternative suppliers to regain market control.
Narrative: The global economy adapts by developing new exploitative techniques and expanding oil resources to overcome disruption, maintaining growth at severe environmental cost.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and breakdown of essential services due to energy shortages and economic instability.
Technological Impact: Existing technologies are insufficient to manage the escalating crisis, leading to widespread technological failures.
Ecological Impact: Uncontrolled environmental damage from neglected oil facilities and emergency measures exacerbates existing climate change effects.
Economic Impact: Global economic depression triggered by supply chain disruptions and financial market crashes.
Political Impact: State collapse in vulnerable regions leading to regional conflicts and humanitarian crises, increasing global instability.
Narrative: The alliance's actions lead to a cascading failure of global systems resulting in regional wars, resource scarcity, and social decay.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Increased surveillance and control by governments and corporations to secure critical infrastructure and manage resource allocation.
Technological Impact: Deployment of sophisticated AI-powered defense systems to protect critical infrastructure and suppress dissent.
Ecological Impact: Strict environmental regulations are implemented to manage resources and mitigate further environmental damage.
Economic Impact: Centralized control over energy production and distribution through nationalization or strict public-private partnerships.
Political Impact: Rise of authoritarian regimes prioritizing security and stability over individual freedoms, marked by increased international cooperation on preventing future attacks.
Narrative: Global society accepts increased government control and restrictions on freedom in exchange for perceived security and stability after the disruption.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Increased awareness of the need for energy independence and decentralized, sustainable living practices fuels grassroots movements.
Technological Impact: Rapid development and adoption of renewable energy technologies, smart grids, and decentralized production systems.
Ecological Impact: Shift towards sustainable resource management and reduced reliance on fossil fuels leads to improved environmental conditions over the long term.
Economic Impact: A new economic model emerges based on decentralized production, circular economy principles, and community-driven initiatives.
Political Impact: The rise of decentralized governance structures and the diminished influence of traditional nation-states fostering collaborative solutions to global challenges.
Narrative: The crisis becomes a catalyst for a global shift toward a more sustainable and decentralized future built on renewable energy, community resilience, and collaborative governance.
