Imagined Future Scenarios
Cognitive Science, Plausible Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'How Neandertal DNA May Affect the Way We Think' - Scientific American
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased acceptance of genetic manipulation leads to new diagnostic and therapeutic tools, but also ethical divides and potential for inequitable access.
Technological Impact: Automated organoid production platforms emerge, driving down costs and expanding research capabilities dramatically.
Ecological Impact: Resource consumption for organoid production escalates, potentially straining limited lab supplies and energy resources.
Economic Impact: A booming bio-tech industry centered around organoid research and applications generates vast wealth.
Political Impact: Governments invest heavily in organoid research, hoping to gain competitive advantages in neuroscience and medicine, potentially leading to a 'brain race'.
Narrative: Organoid research explodes, fueling advancements in medicine and biotechnology, but also exacerbating existing social and economic inequalities.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Public distrust of science increases following unforeseen consequences from organoid research, leading to widespread protests and social unrest.
Technological Impact: Key infrastructure for maintaining advanced labs fails due to resource shortages, halting organoid research and disrupting vital medical research.
Ecological Impact: Unexpected contamination from released engineered organisms (even contained in organoids) triggers ecological disruptions and public health crises.
Economic Impact: The bio-tech industry collapses as trust erodes, leading to widespread job losses and economic recession.
Political Impact: Governments struggle to manage the fallout from collapsing scientific institutions, facing public anger and calls for accountability.
Narrative: Resource depletion and public distrust lead to the abandonment of advanced organoid research, unleashing unintended consequences and societal breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict ethical guidelines and regulations govern organoid research, limiting freedom but ensuring safety and responsible innovation.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated monitoring and containment technologies are implemented to tightly control organoid research and prevent escape of engineered organisms.
Ecological Impact: Stringent protocols are enforced to minimize the environmental impact of organoid production and disposal.
Economic Impact: A heavily regulated bio-tech industry emerges, balancing innovation with responsible oversight and control.
Political Impact: International agreements establish standardized regulations for organoid research, fostering collaboration and preventing misuse.
Narrative: A highly regulated and monitored research environment prioritizes safety and ethical considerations over rapid advancement in organoid technology.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Understanding archaic brain function revolutionizes our understanding of human consciousness and behavior, leading to new philosophical and ethical frameworks.
Technological Impact: Organoid research leads to bio-inspired computing architectures that mimic archaic brain function, enabling breakthroughs in AI and robotics.
Ecological Impact: A bio-centric worldview emerges, shifting societal values towards greater respect for all forms of life, including engineered organisms.
Economic Impact: A new 'wisdom economy' valuing cognitive insights and collaboration replaces traditional industrial models.
Political Impact: Global governance structures adapt to accommodate the rapidly evolving ethical and technological landscape, prioritizing long-term human well-being.
Narrative: Insights from archaic brain organoids spark a profound shift in human consciousness, technological innovation, and planetary stewardship, leading to a more sustainable and equitable future.
