Imagined Future Scenarios
Behavioral Economics, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Factors influencing the adoption of e-government by female university students' - Plos.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased civic engagement leads to more informed and satisfied populace, though access disparities remain.
Technological Impact: VR technology becomes ubiquitous, requiring constant upgrades and fueling a consumerist tech cycle.
Ecological Impact: Increased resource consumption from VR infrastructure and hardware manufacturing exacerbates environmental issues.
Economic Impact: A thriving VR industry boosts economic growth but widens the digital divide and creates new forms of inequality.
Political Impact: Politicians use VR simulations to sway public opinion, potentially leading to manipulation if unchecked.
Narrative: Society embraces VR simulations for informed decision-making, further fueling economic growth and technological advancement, albeit with inherent inequalities and ecological costs.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread distrust of VR simulations arises due to manipulation or technical failures, leading to social fragmentation.
Technological Impact: Systemic failures in VR infrastructure paralyze civic engagement and lead to disillusionment with technology.
Ecological Impact: Resource scarcity impacts VR infrastructure maintenance, rendering simulations unreliable.
Economic Impact: Economic instability undermines investment in VR technology, hindering its accessibility and effectiveness.
Political Impact: Political instability exploits VR failures to delegitimize democratic processes and undermine civic trust.
Narrative: VR simulations fail due to technical glitches, manipulation, and resource constraints, fostering distrust and accelerating societal collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Citizens are conditioned through VR experiences to accept pre-determined policy outcomes, limiting independent thought.
Technological Impact: VR simulations are heavily regulated and controlled by the state or a powerful entity to enforce specific narratives.
Ecological Impact: VR simulations are used to promote resource conservation and enforce environmentally friendly behaviors.
Economic Impact: VR simulations reinforce economic stability by promoting compliance and discouraging dissent.
Political Impact: Centralized control of VR simulations ensures political stability by shaping public opinion and suppressing opposition.
Narrative: A controlling entity uses VR simulations to maintain order, enforce compliance, and eliminate dissent through carefully curated and manipulated experiences.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: VR simulations foster empathy and understanding across diverse groups, leading to more compassionate policy decisions.
Technological Impact: VR technology evolves into a platform for collective intelligence and shared consciousness, facilitating transformative civic engagement.
Ecological Impact: Simulations create a deep understanding of ecological interconnectedness, driving sustainable policies and behaviors.
Economic Impact: VR simulations enable participatory economics, allowing citizens to co-create economic models that prioritize well-being.
Political Impact: VR simulations empower citizens to engage in direct democracy and collaborative governance, leading to more equitable and responsive policies.
Narrative: VR simulations catalyse a profound shift in human consciousness and governance, promoting empathy, sustainability, and participatory democracy.
