Imagined Future Scenarios
Behavioral Economics, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Factors influencing the adoption of e-government by female university students' - Plos.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased societal well-being due to widespread program enrollment and improved outcomes.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated AI algorithms continuously refine nudges based on citizen data.
Ecological Impact: Potentially increased resource consumption due to more people participating in programs and economic activity.
Economic Impact: Economic growth spurred by a healthier and more productive population and optimized resource allocation.
Political Impact: Governments gain increased legitimacy and stability through demonstrable positive citizen outcomes.
Narrative: AI-powered nudges successfully foster a virtuous cycle of growth and prosperity within the e-government framework.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Erosion of trust in government as AI biases and inequities are exposed, leading to social unrest.
Technological Impact: System failures and data breaches undermine the reliability and security of AI nudging platforms.
Ecological Impact: Environmental programs fail due to lack of trust and backlash against perceived government overreach.
Economic Impact: Economic downturn exacerbated by ineffective or biased AI nudges that cripple vulnerable populations.
Political Impact: Political instability rises due to widespread dissatisfaction and accusations of digital manipulation.
Narrative: AI nudges backfire disastrously, collapsing public trust and contributing to societal and economic ruin.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Society becomes highly compliant and homogenous, with reduced individual autonomy and freedom of choice.
Technological Impact: AI nudges are implemented ubiquitously and intrusively across all aspects of daily life.
Ecological Impact: Environmental mandates are enforced through AI-driven nudges, potentially leading to ecological improvements but with little individual agency.
Economic Impact: Centralized control over economic activity is strengthened through AI-guided resource allocation.
Political Impact: An authoritarian regime leverages AI nudges to maintain power and suppress dissent.
Narrative: A highly controlled society emerges, where AI nudges are used as a tool for social engineering and political control.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Citizens become more aware of their cognitive biases and actively participate in designing their own nudges for personal growth.
Technological Impact: AI evolves into a collaborative tool that empowers individuals to make informed decisions aligned with their values.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable practices are adopted widely through AI nudges that emphasize intrinsic motivation and connection to nature.
Economic Impact: A new economic model emerges, focused on well-being and sustainability, guided by AI that prioritizes human values.
Political Impact: Direct democracy is enhanced through AI-powered platforms that facilitate informed and participatory decision-making.
Narrative: AI-powered nudges catalyze a societal transformation towards greater self-awareness, empowerment, and collective well-being.
