Imagined Future Scenarios
Aerospace Engineering, Probable Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'SpaceX Launches Private Lunar Landers Toward the Moon For a Roundabout Journey' - Time
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased space tourism and lunar settlement fueled by accessible and affordable on-orbit services.
Technological Impact: Proliferation of advanced robotics, AI-driven resource management, and modular spacecraft design for space infrastructure.
Ecological Impact: Escalated resource extraction on the Moon and increased space debris contribute to cislunar environmental degradation.
Economic Impact: Booming space-based economy dominated by resource exploitation, manufacturing, and transportation around the Moon.
Political Impact: Emergence of space-faring nations and private entities vying for control of lunar resources and strategic cislunar locations.
Narrative: Exponential expansion into cislunar space driven by economic opportunity and unchecked technological advancement.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Elite control over limited lunar resources creates social unrest and inequity both on Earth and in cislunar space.
Technological Impact: System-wide failures of critical on-orbit servicing infrastructure due to mismanagement, cyberattacks, or unexpected hardware defects.
Ecological Impact: Uncontrolled lunar surface damage due to unregulated resource extraction and lack of environmental protection protocols.
Economic Impact: Economic recession triggered by the collapse of the cislunar economy due to unsustainable practices and escalating operational costs.
Political Impact: Geopolitical tensions escalate into armed conflict over dwindling resources and disputed territorial claims around the Moon.
Narrative: Unsustainable growth leads to systemic failure of cislunar infrastructure and societal breakdown both on Earth and in space.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Highly regulated access to cislunar resources and services enforces social order and dictates career paths.
Technological Impact: Standardized on-orbit servicing protocols and stringent safety regulations prioritize reliability and minimize risks.
Ecological Impact: Enforced environmental quotas and resource management strategies aim to minimize the ecological footprint in cislunar space.
Economic Impact: Centralized control over the cislunar economy ensures stability and equitable distribution of resources.
Political Impact: Global governance body enforces strict regulations and manages access to cislunar resources, preventing conflict and ensuring compliance.
Narrative: A global authority meticulously manages cislunar resources and activity to ensure long-term sustainability and prevent conflict.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Development of a new lunar-based culture focused on sustainability, resourcefulness, and shared responsibility for the cislunar environment.
Technological Impact: Bio-regenerative life support systems and in-situ resource utilization technologies enable closed-loop ecosystems and reduce dependence on Earth.
Ecological Impact: Cislunar space becomes a model for sustainable resource management and responsible space exploration.
Economic Impact: Circular economy principles and collaborative resource sharing foster equitable and resilient economic growth.
Political Impact: Autonomous lunar communities governed by decentralized decision-making empower local populations and promote self-sufficiency.
Narrative: A paradigm shift towards sustainable and collaborative space exploration fosters a resilient and equitable cislunar civilization.
