Imagined Future Scenarios
Materials Science, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'LEGO Prosthetic Arm Empowers 8-Year Old with Affordable Accessible Healthcare' - Yanko Design
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased accessibility and normalization of advanced prosthetics leads to reduced stigma and enhanced quality of life for amputees.
Technological Impact: Shape-memory alloy research advances rapidly, leading to the creation of even more sophisticated and adaptable prosthetic limbs with enhanced sensory feedback.
Ecological Impact: Increased mining of rare earth elements for shape-memory alloys leads to habitat destruction and pollution.
Economic Impact: The prosthetic industry booms, creating new jobs and driving economic growth, but also exacerbating inequalities in access based on affordability.
Political Impact: Governments invest heavily in research and development, competing to become leaders in prosthetic technology and providing advanced prosthetics to veterans.
Narrative: Continued technological advancement and market expansion make advanced prosthetics increasingly common, but resource scarcity and inequality persist.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Breakdown of supply chains and healthcare systems leaves amputees unable to access or maintain their advanced prosthetics, leading to increased disability and social unrest.
Technological Impact: Loss of infrastructure and expertise halts further development of shape-memory alloy technology and maintenance of existing prosthetics becomes difficult.
Ecological Impact: Environmental degradation and resource depletion further strain existing infrastructure and reduce the availability of materials for prosthetics.
Economic Impact: Economic depression and widespread unemployment make advanced prosthetics unaffordable for most, increasing reliance on simpler, less effective alternatives.
Political Impact: Political instability disrupts research, production, and distribution of prosthetics, exacerbating the challenges faced by amputees.
Narrative: Systemic failures lead to the loss of access to advanced prosthetics, leaving amputees vulnerable and widening the gap between the haves and have-nots.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Access to advanced prosthetics is heavily regulated and rationed based on social contribution and government priorities, creating a stratified system.
Technological Impact: Research is directed towards maximizing the efficiency and durability of prosthetics, with a focus on resource conservation and national security applications.
Ecological Impact: Stringent regulations are imposed on the mining and processing of materials for prosthetics, minimizing environmental damage but potentially limiting production.
Economic Impact: State-controlled production and distribution of prosthetics aim to ensure equitable access, but innovation is stifled and waiting lists are long.
Political Impact: Centralized control over healthcare and technological development prioritizes the needs of the state over individual autonomy and freedom of choice.
Narrative: A highly controlled society prioritizes the efficient allocation of scarce resources, dictating who receives advanced prosthetics and under what conditions.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift in societal values promotes radical inclusivity and mutual aid, leading to community-based initiatives for providing and maintaining prosthetics for all.
Technological Impact: Open-source designs and 3D printing democratize the production of advanced prosthetics, making them more accessible and customizable.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable materials and circular economy principles minimize the environmental impact of prosthetic production and promote recycling and reuse.
Economic Impact: A collaborative economy emerges, where individuals share resources and knowledge to create and maintain prosthetics, reducing reliance on market-based solutions.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance and grassroots movements empower communities to address their own healthcare needs, including the provision of advanced prosthetics.
Narrative: A fundamental shift in values and technology empowers individuals and communities to create a more equitable and sustainable future where advanced prosthetics are accessible to all.
