Imagined Future Scenarios
Sociology, Possible Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Exploring entrepreneurial intention among European Union youth by education and employment status' - Plos.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social mobility and a vibrant entrepreneurial culture bolster overall societal well-being, though inequality may persist.
Technological Impact: Accelerated technological innovation driven by a surge of new ventures leads to widespread automation and efficiency gains.
Ecological Impact: Increased consumption and production strain resources, exacerbating environmental degradation and accelerating climate change.
Economic Impact: Economic growth is fueled by successful startups, creating new jobs and wealth, although concentrated in certain sectors.
Political Impact: Governments prioritize policies that support business growth and innovation, potentially at the expense of social safety nets beyond UBI.
Narrative: A booming economy driven by youthful innovation and risk-taking propels society into an era of unprecedented prosperity and technological advancement, at a cost.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: The UBI proves insufficient to prevent social unrest as speculative ventures fail and youth sink further into debt, losing their safety net.
Technological Impact: Technological progress stalls as failed ventures deter further investment, and disillusionment with innovation spreads.
Ecological Impact: Environmental degradation worsens due to unsustainable startup practices, contributing to resource scarcity and economic instability.
Economic Impact: The initial surge of startups leads to a bubble, followed by a crash as most fail, leaving a large portion of the population dependent on a strained UBI system.
Political Impact: Political instability arises as the UBI system is challenged by those who feel it is either too generous or insufficient, leading to social unrest.
Narrative: The dream of entrepreneurial freedom dissolves into a nightmare of widespread failure, economic instability, and social unrest, pushing society towards collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Youth entrepreneurship becomes heavily regulated and monitored to ensure responsible innovation and prevent widespread failure.
Technological Impact: Technology is developed and implemented to track startup performance and allocate UBI resources efficiently, prioritizing 'safe' ventures.
Ecological Impact: Sustainability standards are enforced on all new ventures to minimize environmental impact and resource depletion.
Economic Impact: The UBI system is restructured to incentivize specific sectors and technologies deemed beneficial by centralized planners.
Political Impact: A centralized authority gains control over resource allocation and entrepreneurial activity, creating a technocratic governance model.
Narrative: A top-down, data-driven approach is implemented to manage youth entrepreneurship, transforming the UBI system into a tool for social engineering and economic control.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A new social contract emerges where entrepreneurship is viewed as a collective endeavor focused on solving societal problems, supported by UBI.
Technological Impact: Open-source platforms and decentralized technologies facilitate collaborative innovation, enabling youth to create solutions for local communities.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable and regenerative practices become integral to new ventures, driven by a shift in values towards environmental stewardship.
Economic Impact: A circular economy emerges, powered by local, community-based startups focused on resource reuse and equitable distribution of wealth.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models empower local communities to manage their own resources and support youth-led initiatives.
Narrative: A shift in values towards collaboration, sustainability, and social good transforms entrepreneurship into a force for positive social and environmental change, empowered by UBI.
