Imagined Future Scenarios
Disaster Management, Probable Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Household food insecurity, living conditions, and individual sense of security: A cross-sectional survey among Burkina Faso refugees in Ghana' - Plos.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Refugee settlements become models for rapid urbanization, leading to social integration but also potential cultural clashes.
Technological Impact: AI-powered construction and resource management enables the rapid scaling of settlements, but perpetuates reliance on complex systems.
Ecological Impact: Demand for resources from settlements strains local ecosystems, requiring complex conservation and compensation strategies.
Economic Impact: Settlements stimulate economic growth through new markets and industries, but create dependencies on global supply chains and aid flows.
Political Impact: Governments gain legitimacy through successful refugee integration, but face challenges balancing the needs of refugees and existing populations.
Narrative: The world expands, replicating existing systems and increasing global interconnectedness despite rising environmental and social pressures.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Overwhelmed by climate disasters and conflict, refugee settlements fail, leading to widespread displacement and societal breakdown.
Technological Impact: Technology proves insufficient to manage escalating crises, resulting in system failure and widespread resource scarcity.
Ecological Impact: Ecological degradation intensifies displacement, driving resource conflicts and further undermining settlement stability.
Economic Impact: Global economic systems collapse, disrupting supply chains and leaving settlements vulnerable to resource shortages and violence.
Political Impact: Governments buckle under the strain of mass migration and resource scarcity, leading to conflict and political instability.
Narrative: The adaptive settlements planned could not keep pace with the accelerated decline as cascading failures result in unmanageable population displacement.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Refugee settlements become highly controlled environments, prioritizing efficiency and order over individual freedoms and cultural expression.
Technological Impact: Surveillance technology and resource management systems are deployed to optimize settlement operations, raising ethical concerns about privacy and autonomy.
Ecological Impact: Strict environmental regulations are enforced in and around settlements, limiting resource use and impacting local ecosystems.
Economic Impact: Settlements become self-sufficient economic zones, but operate under strict government control and limited private enterprise.
Political Impact: Centralized control and data-driven decision-making ensure stability, but at the cost of democratic processes and individual liberties.
Narrative: A future is forged where resource allocation and population control reign supreme, with AI acting as a guide for societal order and preservation.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Refugee settlements become incubators for new social models based on cooperation, resilience, and shared resources.
Technological Impact: Decentralized and open-source technologies empower refugees to create self-sustaining communities and solve local challenges.
Ecological Impact: Regenerative agriculture and permaculture principles are implemented in settlements, promoting ecological restoration and food security.
Economic Impact: Circular economy principles and local production foster economic resilience and reduce dependence on external supply chains.
Political Impact: Direct democracy and participatory governance structures empower refugees to shape their own destinies and advocate for their rights in shaping global policy.
Narrative: A paradigm shift occurs as refugee settlements become hubs for innovative solutions to global challenges, showcasing a more sustainable and equitable way of life.