Imagined Future Scenarios
Media Futures, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Joe Biden Pardoned Marcus Garvey. Is It Enough?' - Rolling Stone
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased historical engagement intertwined with desensitization to authenticity blurs lines between fact and fiction, creating entertainment-focused history.
Technological Impact: Deepfake technology becomes increasingly sophisticated and accessible, enhancing realism and driving down production costs.
Ecological Impact: Increased server farms for processing deepfakes contribute to energy consumption and carbon emissions, worsening environmental concerns.
Economic Impact: A thriving 'historical entertainment' industry emerges, generating revenue through subscriptions, advertising, and specialized content.
Political Impact: Governments grapple with regulating deepfakes to prevent disinformation and protect the integrity of public discourse and historical narratives.
Narrative: Historical deepfakes become ubiquitous entertainment, driving a booming digital history industry and raising concerns about authenticity.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread distrust erupts as the line between reality and fabricated history erodes, fueling social fragmentation and conspiracy theories.
Technological Impact: Deepfake detection technology fails to keep pace with deepfake creation, leading to uncontrollable misinformation and societal breakdown.
Ecological Impact: Societal unrest and resource scarcity limit the ability to address environmental issues exacerbated by deepfake-driven misinformation.
Economic Impact: Economic instability arises from the loss of trust in information, disrupting markets and hindering rational decision-making.
Political Impact: Political institutions crumble as deepfakes sow discord and undermine trust in leadership, fueling extremism and civil unrest.
Narrative: Uncontrollable misinformation from deepfakes leads to societal breakdown, eroded trust, and the collapse of established institutions.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulations and educational initiatives aim to restore trust in information by promoting media literacy and critical thinking.
Technological Impact: Centralized authorities control deepfake technology, using it for sanctioned educational purposes while suppressing unauthorized use.
Ecological Impact: Energy credits are given to approved educational and scientific uses of the technology while limiting use for entertainment purposes.
Economic Impact: Government subsidies support deepfake detection technology and historical accuracy verification, limiting free market growth.
Political Impact: A global 'Truth Authority' enforces strict regulations on deepfake creation and content, imposing penalties for violations.
Narrative: A centralized authority tightly controls deepfake technology, using it for sanctioned education and strictly suppressing unauthorized usage to combat misinformation.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A deeper understanding of historical figures emerges as deepfakes allow immersive engagement, prompting critical analysis and renewed interest in ethics.
Technological Impact: Deepfake technology evolves into advanced AI tutors, facilitating personalized historical education and critical thinking skills development.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable computing practices reduce the environmental footprint of AI, enabling responsible use for educational and societal benefit.
Economic Impact: A collaborative historical creation economy emerges where individuals ethically contribute to historical narratives through AI enhanced methods.
Political Impact: Global dialogues facilitated by deepfake technology foster greater cross-cultural understanding and informed decision-making on complex issues.
Narrative: Ethical deepfake technology fosters deeper historical understanding, critical thinking, and collaborative global dialogues, transforming how we learn and engage with the past.
