Imagined Future Scenarios
Misinformation, Plausible Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Note on the Relationship Between Artificial Intelligence and Human Intelligence' - Vatican.va
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased social anxiety and distrust of public figures leads to polarized opinions and echo chambers, hindering constructive dialogue.
Technological Impact: AI arms race intensifies, with increasingly sophisticated tools for both creating and detecting deepfakes.
Ecological Impact: Increased energy consumption due to data centers required for AI development exacerbates existing environmental problems.
Economic Impact: Booming cybersecurity and misinformation detection industries create economic growth, but at the cost of overall productivity and trust.
Political Impact: Increased geopolitical instability as nations exploit deepfakes to destabilize rivals, but international cooperation slowly attempts to regulate these technologies to prevent large-scale war.
Narrative: Relentless technological advancement amplifies misinformation, driving social division while fueling new economic sectors focused on combating its effects, yet international rules eventually temper the worst excesses.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Complete societal breakdown occurs due to widespread distrust, leading to mass panic and violence.
Technological Impact: Technology becomes untrusted and ultimately useless, and infrastructure crumbles because of constant attacks and manipulations.
Ecological Impact: Ecological damage accelerates as international cooperation on climate change collapses and resource wars break out, fueled by misinformation.
Economic Impact: Global economic system collapses as trust erodes and international trade grinds to a halt due to constant uncertainty.
Political Impact: National governments disintegrate as trust plummets, replaced by localized warlords and fragmented power structures.
Narrative: Misinformation overwhelms society, triggering a catastrophic unraveling of institutions, global cooperation, and ultimately civilized society.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict censorship and surveillance become the norm, suppressing dissent and creating a society of conformity.
Technological Impact: AI is repurposed for mass surveillance, with advanced detection capabilities and restrictions on personal AI use.
Ecological Impact: State-controlled information campaigns promote ecological sustainability but limit individual freedoms to control the narrative.
Economic Impact: State-controlled media and information sources solidify economic power in the hands of a few elite corporations and government entities that can control flow of information.
Political Impact: Authoritarian regimes strengthen and consolidate power by controlling information streams and quashing opposition.
Narrative: In the face of rampant AI-generated misinformation, governments impose strict control over information and technology, creating a highly regulated and surveilled society under an authoritarian rule.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A new level of digital literacy emerges, empowering individuals to critically evaluate information and discern truth from fiction.
Technological Impact: Decentralized, blockchain-based authentication systems verify identity and authenticity of media, making deepfakes easily identifiable.
Ecological Impact: Focus shifts to sustainable tech and carbon-negative data solutions that lessen ecological impact of AI.
Economic Impact: A 'trust economy' emerges, where authenticity and transparency are highly valued and rewarded.
Political Impact: New global governance structures promote transparency and accountability in the development and deployment of AI.
Narrative: Society collectively embraces decentralized technologies and critical thinking, ushering in an era of transparency, trust, and responsible AI governance, fundamentally transforming the relationship with information.
