Autonomous vehicles cause an accident, raising complex questions of liability and accountability, leading to the development of AI ethics boards to oversee algorithmic decision-making.

Imagined Future Scenarios

Ethics in Technology, Plausible Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)

Scenario Generated from 'AppSOC 2025 Predictions: 2024 Saw AI Expansion, Will 2025 See AI Application Security?' - Vmblog.com

Future Arc and Implications

Grow Arc

Social Impact: Increased reliance on autonomous vehicles creates new social stratification based on access and comfort, marginalizing those reliant on older transport.

Technological Impact: AI ethics boards standardize algorithmic decision-making across various AI applications, promoting faster technological proliferation.

Ecological Impact: Despite efficiency gains, increased vehicle use driven by convenience can negate carbon reduction benefits, worsening pollution.

Economic Impact: Booming autonomous vehicle industry and AI ethics compliance sector drive economic growth, but widening wealth inequality exacerbates social issues.

Political Impact: Lobbying by tech giants and AI ethics organizations shapes regulations, leading to potential biases and a lack of public accountability.

Narrative: Autonomous vehicles become ubiquitous, fueling economic growth and technological advancement, but ethical oversight struggles to keep pace with innovation.

Collapse Arc

Social Impact: Erosion of trust in AI and autonomous systems leads to social unrest and rejection of technological advancements.

Technological Impact: Failures of autonomous systems and ethical frameworks trigger a slowdown in AI development and stricter regulations that stifle innovation.

Ecological Impact: Breakdown in supply chains impacts the availability of resources for maintaining autonomous vehicle infrastructure, increasing pollution and resource waste.

Economic Impact: Disasters involving autonomous vehicles trigger economic recession as investments plummet and public confidence in these systems crashes.

Political Impact: Political gridlock and lack of consensus on liability and accountability hinder effective crisis response and exacerbate system failures.

Narrative: Widespread failures and ethical lapses in autonomous systems cause societal breakdown, triggering a retreat from technological dependence and a scramble for survival.

Discipline Arc

Social Impact: Strict regulations and surveillance systems are implemented to ensure ethical compliance, leading to a highly controlled and monitored society.

Technological Impact: AI ethics boards evolve into powerful regulatory bodies, dictating the development and deployment of all AI-related technologies.

Ecological Impact: Centralized control allows for efficient resource management and reduced environmental impact, but limits individual freedom and autonomy.

Economic Impact: Government intervention and standardization stifle innovation but ensure stable economic growth focused on sustainability and equitable access.

Political Impact: A technocratic elite governs through data-driven decision-making, potentially suppressing dissent and limiting democratic participation.

Narrative: A heavily managed society emerges, where AI ethics boards enforce strict regulations on autonomous systems and other technologies, prioritizing safety and control over individual liberty.

Transform Arc

Social Impact: Widespread adoption of ethical AI principles transforms societal values, fostering empathy, collaboration, and shared responsibility.

Technological Impact: New AI architectures prioritizing explainability and transparency emerge, promoting trust and enabling human-machine collaboration.

Ecological Impact: Autonomous systems are leveraged for environmental restoration and sustainable resource management, leading to ecological regeneration.

Economic Impact: A shift towards a circular economy and decentralized production systems promotes economic resilience and reduces inequality.

Political Impact: Decentralized governance models utilizing blockchain and AI empower citizens and foster direct democracy.

Narrative: A fundamental transformation of values and technologies leads to a more ethical, sustainable, and equitable future, where AI enhances human potential and environmental well-being.

Product ideas generated based on this scenario

AI Ethics Insurance

A new form of insurance that provides coverage for individuals and businesses harmed by algorithmic bias or errors in autonomous systems. It quickly compensates victims while independent auditors investigate the AI's decision-making process, providing crucial support in a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

Algorithmic Redlining Detector

A browser extension and public API that detects and flags instances of algorithmic redlining and discriminatory pricing practices in autonomous vehicle services. This tool empowers users to identify and report unfair practices, fostering greater transparency and accountability in the AI-driven transportation sector.

Community Resilience Networks (CRNs)

Local, self-organized community networks that provide alternative transportation systems (e.g., bike co-ops, ride-sharing groups using human drivers), basic necessities, and skill-sharing opportunities in the event of autonomous vehicle system failures. CRNs foster localized resilience and self-sufficiency when centralized systems falter.

Analog Navigation Skills Training

Training programs and readily accessible physical resources (maps, compasses, basic vehicle maintenance guides) that teach essential navigation and survival skills in the absence of reliable technology. This service prepares individuals and communities for a potential return to more self-sufficient modes of living.

Ethical AI Certification Marketplace

A government-regulated marketplace where AI developers can purchase certifications validating the ethical soundness of their algorithms. Stringent testing and ongoing monitoring ensure compliance with established ethical standards, while providing economic incentives for ethical development.

Predictive Malfeasance System (PMS)

A centralized AI system that monitors all autonomous vehicles and interconnected systems for anomalies and potentially unethical behavior. The PMS proactively identifies and addresses biases before they occur, but at the cost of constant surveillance and loss of privacy.

Embodied AI Co-Pilots

AI systems designed not to replace drivers but to function as ethical co-pilots, providing real-time feedback on potential biases or unintended consequences of decisions made by autonomous systems and/or human drivers. These co-pilots promote ethical awareness and collaborative decision-making.

Decentralized AI Ethics Observatory

A globally distributed, blockchain-based platform where citizens can contribute to the ongoing evaluation and refinement of AI ethics guidelines. Through crowdsourcing, open-source development, and transparent data analysis, the Observatory fosters shared ownership and accountability in the development and deployment of ethical AI.

Projects inspired by this scenario

What if the 'green' revolution was built on algorithms that reinforced inequality?

Mizan Al-Taqa: Scales of Energy: A speculative design project that critiques the ethical implications of AI-driven 'ethical' investment within the renewable energy sector, revealing potential inequalities masked by algorithmic complexity.