UN peacekeeping forces increasingly rely on private military companies for logistical support and security in conflict zones.

Imagined Future Scenarios

Governance, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)

Scenario Generated from 'Did Israel “win” the post-October 7 war?' - Vox

Future Arc and Implications

Grow Arc

Social Impact: Increased acceptance and normalization of private military involvement leads to desensitization towards conflict.

Technological Impact: Advanced logistics and weaponry are developed and deployed, enhancing the efficiency of peacekeeping operations, but also raising ethical concerns.

Ecological Impact: Expanded resource extraction and logistical operations contribute to environmental degradation in conflict zones.

Economic Impact: The private military industry booms, creating lucrative opportunities and exacerbating inequalities between participating countries and conflict zones.

Political Impact: UN reliance on private entities entrenches their power, potentially undermining state sovereignty and international law over time.

Narrative: As global conflicts increase, the UN outsources more peacekeeping functions, leading to a thriving private military sector that becomes indispensable.

Collapse Arc

Social Impact: Erosion of trust in international organizations and governments leads to local rebellions and increased violence in ungoverned spaces.

Technological Impact: Over-reliance on advanced but vulnerable tech makes peacekeeping vulnerable to cyberattacks and EMP events.

Ecological Impact: Widespread resource depletion and environmental disasters exacerbate conflicts and strain peacekeeping operations to the breaking point.

Economic Impact: Global economic recession undermines funding for both UN peacekeeping and private military companies, leading to operational failures.

Political Impact: The UN's legitimacy collapses, as it becomes viewed as captive to private interests and unable to effectively maintain peace.

Narrative: Diminishing resources and global instability cause the UN's peacekeeping capacity to fail, leading to widespread chaos and escalating conflicts fueled by private actors.

Discipline Arc

Social Impact: Strict regulations and oversight are implemented to control private military companies, limiting their autonomy but potentially increasing accountability.

Technological Impact: Standardized technologies and data sharing protocols are mandated to enhance transparency and coordination in peacekeeping operations.

Ecological Impact: Environmental impact assessments and sustainable practices are integrated into peacekeeping contracts to minimize ecological damage.

Economic Impact: Governments establish stringent procurement processes and oversight bodies to ensure cost-effectiveness and prevent corruption in the private military industry.

Political Impact: International treaties and legal frameworks are developed to regulate the use of private military companies and hold them accountable for human rights violations.

Narrative: Faced with growing ethical and accountability concerns, a coalition of states establishes strict international governance over private military companies operating in UN peacekeeping missions.

Transform Arc

Social Impact: A shift in global consciousness promotes non-violent conflict resolution and community-based approaches to peacebuilding, reducing reliance on military intervention.

Technological Impact: Advanced AI and VR technologies facilitate conflict mediation and de-escalation, creating alternative solutions to traditional peacekeeping.

Ecological Impact: Regenerative agriculture and sustainable economic models are implemented in conflict zones, addressing root causes of conflict and promoting environmental restoration.

Economic Impact: Resource sharing and equitable distribution models replace exploitative practices, fostering economic stability and reducing tensions in conflict-prone regions.

Political Impact: A global federation of democratic states emerges, prioritizing diplomatic solutions and collaborative peacebuilding efforts over military force.

Narrative: Technological advancements and a new era of global cooperation lead to the development of alternative, non-violent peacekeeping mechanisms, diminishing the role of private military companies.

Product ideas generated based on this scenario

Conflict Zone Risk Insurance

A financial product that insures individuals and businesses operating in conflict zones against losses due to violence, property damage, and displacement. This addresses the economic impact of increased private military presence by providing a safety net for those affected by their activities and insuring activities related to peacekeeping. This enables and incentivizes economic growth in conflict areas regardless of private military operations.

Peacekeeper Logistics Marketplace

An open-source, blockchain-based platform connecting the UN, private military companies, and local suppliers for logistical support. This enables the UN to create a marketplace to find the right kind of resources in the desired region, and this platform enforces a process for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) compliance. This addresses the growing environmental and economic concerns by promoting transparency, efficiency, and ethical sourcing in peacekeeping operations.

Community Resilience Networks (CRNs)

Local, self-organized networks equipped with essential skills and resources (food reserves, medical supplies, communication systems) to provide mutual aid and security in the absence of effective governance. This provides a local security solution when traditional resources have collapsed, leading to more stability for the civilians caught in the conflict. It reinforces trust in local organizations while undermining it in larger governing bodies.

Decentralized Autonomous Peacekeepers (DAPs)

A network of AI-powered drones and sensors operating autonomously in conflict zones, providing early warning of threats and coordinating local defense efforts. This service leverages autonomous tech to fulfill needs when governmental defense systems fail. DAPs are powered by localized solar and wind farms, and their AI is community-sourced and auditable.

Private Military Company (PMC) Ethical Certification

A standardized certification program audited by an independent international body, assessing private military firms on human rights, environmental impact, and transparency. This ensures governance and accountability of PMC operations while also standardizing practices across different PMCs for better comparability.

Peacekeeper Performance Bond

A financial instrument that requires private military companies to deposit funds in escrow, reimbursable based on adherence to ethical guidelines and success in achieving peacekeeping objectives. This uses incentives to encourage ethical operations by these companies and reduce corruption, human rights violations, and more.

Global Conflict Resolution Institute (GCRI)

A virtual and physical institution dedicated to researching and implementing non-violent conflict resolution strategies, providing training, and facilitating mediation between conflicting parties. Creates an alternative to violence during conflicts and undermines the growth of private military companies.

Empathy-AI Peace Simulator

A VR experience that allows individuals to step into the shoes of different stakeholders in a conflict, fostering empathy and understanding to promote peaceful dialogue and reconciliation. By creating a simulation of war from many perspectives, the simulator encourages those considering violence to see conflicts in a different light. It offers ways to manage disagreements between different groups and communities through facilitated experiences.

Projects inspired by this scenario

What if ethical conduct could be incentivized through a binding system rooted in natural balance and accountability?

Orbital Concord: Reimagining Peacekeeping Governance: This speculative design project explores a novel governance model for private military companies in UN peacekeeping, incentivizing ethical conduct through a system of bonds and reimbursements, inspired by eco-systemic balance and celestial mechanics.