Imagined Future Scenarios
Augmented Reality, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'How Do Architects Forecast Trends? In Conversation with Research and Inovation Co-Directors of Perkins&Will' - ArchDaily
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased democratization of design leads to customized, but aesthetically bland, spaces.
Technological Impact: AR hardware and software become ubiquitous, driving innovation in sensors and processing power.
Ecological Impact: Increased construction and remodeling, facilitated by easy design, accelerates resource depletion and waste.
Economic Impact: The construction and AR industries boom, creating jobs and fueling economic growth.
Political Impact: Governments struggle to regulate design freedom and ensure equitable access to AR technologies.
Narrative: Unfettered growth in AR-driven design reshapes the built environment, leading to a world of hyper-customization and escalating ecological pressures.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Breakdown of supply chains and AR infrastructure isolates communities and fuels frustration with inaccessible technologies.
Technological Impact: AR infrastructure fails due to neglected maintenance and resource scarcity, rendering collaborative design obsolete.
Ecological Impact: Environmental disasters disrupt construction and AR functionality, forcing a return to simpler building methods.
Economic Impact: The housing market and related AR industries crash, leading to widespread economic hardship and unemployment.
Political Impact: Governments are unable to maintain AR systems, leading to a loss of public trust and social unrest.
Narrative: The dream of AR-enabled design collapses under the weight of ecological disasters, economic instability, and failing infrastructure, forcing a retreat to basic survival.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Centralized control limits individual design freedom in favor of standardized, efficient, and sustainable spaces.
Technological Impact: AR is used primarily for professional architects and urban planners working within strict regulatory frameworks.
Ecological Impact: Governments enforce sustainable building practices and resource management through AR-enabled monitoring and control.
Economic Impact: The AR and construction markets are heavily regulated, focusing on essential infrastructure and sustainable development.
Political Impact: Governments use AR as a tool for urban planning and regulatory oversight, suppressing independent and potentially disruptive designs.
Narrative: AR becomes a tool for centralized planning, ensuring sustainable and equitable design guided by strict regulations and top-down control.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Collaborative, AR-driven design fosters a sense of community and shared ownership in creating sustainable and meaningful spaces.
Technological Impact: AR evolves with bio-integrated interfaces and AI, enabling a deeper understanding of human needs within ecological limits.
Ecological Impact: AR facilitates closed-loop material cycles and regenerative building practices, minimizing environmental impact.
Economic Impact: The AR economy shifts toward localized and circular design models, promoting community resilience and sustainable livelihoods.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance structures empower communities to use AR for collective decision-making in shaping their environment.
Narrative: AR transforms into a collaborative tool for conscious placemaking, empowering communities to create regenerative and meaningful spaces within ecological boundaries.
