Imagined Future Scenarios
Augmented Reality, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from '25 years of Apple's innovation in selling technology' - AppleInsider
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased consumer dependence on AR navigation leads to decreased spatial awareness and heightened susceptibility to targeted advertising.
Technological Impact: AR navigation evolves into increasingly sophisticated and personalized shopping applications with enhanced visual fidelity and integration with IoT.
Ecological Impact: Increased consumption fueled by optimized shopping experiences leads to greater resource depletion and waste production.
Economic Impact: Retail businesses experience significant revenue growth through optimized traffic flow and impulse purchases driven by AR cues.
Political Impact: Governments struggle to regulate personalized AR advertising and data privacy concerns within the retail environment.
Narrative: AR navigation becomes ubiquitous, driving consumerism to new heights and transforming retail into a seamless, personalized experience.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread power outages or system failures disrupt AR navigation, leading to chaos and frustration in retail environments.
Technological Impact: AR infrastructure crumbles due to lack of maintenance, cyberattacks, or shortage of critical components, rendering navigation systems unusable.
Ecological Impact: Resource scarcity and environmental disasters force retailers to prioritize essential goods over AR-driven shopping experiences.
Economic Impact: Retail businesses reliant on AR navigation suffer significant losses due to system failures and decreased consumer confidence.
Political Impact: Government instability hinders investment in AR infrastructure and regulation, exacerbating the collapse of AR-driven retail.
Narrative: Systemic failures cripple AR infrastructure, plunging retail environments into disarray and highlighting society's over-reliance on technology.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Retail experiences become highly regulated and standardized, with AR navigation used to enforce social distancing and consumption patterns deemed 'sustainable'.
Technological Impact: AR navigation is centrally controlled and monitored, ensuring compliance with government regulations and promoting preferred products.
Ecological Impact: AR systems are implemented to guide consumers to eco-friendly products and discourage unsustainable purchases.
Economic Impact: The state heavily influences retail markets using AR to incentivize certain economic activities and discourage others.
Political Impact: Governments exert significant control over AR navigation systems, shaping consumer behavior and promoting state-approved retail practices.
Narrative: AR navigation transforms into a tool for social engineering, meticulously guiding consumer choices and enforcing a highly regulated retail landscape.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Consumers develop a critical awareness of AR's manipulative potential, leading to a rejection of directed shopping experiences and a preference for mindful consumption.
Technological Impact: Open-source AR navigation platforms emerge, prioritizing user autonomy and ethical design over commercial interests.
Ecological Impact: AR navigation is repurposed to promote sustainable consumption practices and connect consumers with local, ethically sourced products.
Economic Impact: Retail businesses that prioritize transparency and ethical sourcing thrive by aligning with conscious consumer values.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models empower communities to develop and manage their own AR navigation systems based on local needs and values.
Narrative: A conscious revolution reclaims AR technology, transforming navigation from a tool of consumerism into a catalyst for sustainable and ethical consumption.