Imagined Future Scenarios
Sustainable Agriculture, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Malaysia aims to become leading cocoa hub in Asia' - The Star Online
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased cocoa availability leads to wider consumption and potentially affordable chocolate products.
Technological Impact: Drone technology advances rapidly, incorporating AI and improved sensor capabilities for enhanced disease detection.
Ecological Impact: Reduced pesticide use leads to healthier ecosystems and biodiversity within cocoa-growing regions.
Economic Impact: Cocoa farmers experience higher yields and incomes, stimulating economic growth in cocoa-producing communities.
Political Impact: Governments support drone adoption through subsidies and favorable regulations, securing cocoa supply chains.
Narrative: Cocoa production booms, fueled by technological advancements that optimize yields and meet increasing global demand.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: System failure of drone infrastructure and support leads to cocoa crop failures, triggering social unrest and potential food shortages.
Technological Impact: Drone technology becomes unusable due to lack of maintenance, software updates, or cyberattacks, halting disease monitoring.
Ecological Impact: Uncontrolled disease outbreaks decimate cocoa crops despite initial progress, leading to broader ecological damage.
Economic Impact: Cocoa prices skyrocket due to scarcity, devastating chocolate industries and impacting consumer affordability.
Political Impact: Political instability and lack of resource allocation hinder the recovery of cocoa production after a major setback.
Narrative: The promised benefits of drone monitoring are undone by systemic failures, leading to catastrophic cocoa crop losses and societal disruption.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Cocoa farmers are trained and regulated by central authorities to adhere to strict drone monitoring protocols and treatment regimes.
Technological Impact: A centralized body controls and manages drone systems, ensuring consistent data collection and analysis for cocoa disease prevention.
Ecological Impact: Pesticide use is strictly regulated and optimized based on drone data, minimizing environmental impact under a controlled system.
Economic Impact: Cocoa production is stabilized through controlled interventions and market regulations to ensure fair prices and sustainable livelihoods.
Political Impact: A global cocoa authority enforces standards and regulations across cocoa-producing regions, maintaining control over the supply chain.
Narrative: A highly regulated global system ensures cocoa production stability through strict drone-based monitoring and centralized control mechanisms.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Empowered local communities use open-source drone technology and citizen science to build resilient and self-sufficient cocoa farms.
Technological Impact: Open-source drone technology and collaborative data sharing revolutionize cocoa disease management, empowering farmers and researchers.
Ecological Impact: Regenerative agriculture practices combined with drone monitoring create resilient ecosystems and enhanced biodiversity in cocoa-growing areas.
Economic Impact: Localized cocoa economies thrive with fair trade practices & value added chocolate making within the cocoa growing communities thanks to improved yields.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models promote community ownership and sustainable resource management in cocoa-producing regions.
Narrative: A revolution in cocoa farming as communities harness accessible technology and sustainable practices for resilience and self-sufficiency.
