Imagined Future Scenarios
Environmental Conservation, Plausible Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Symposium by GQUAL on CEDAW’s GR40: A Catalyst for Gender Equity and Climate Justice' - Opiniojuris.org
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased representation of women leads to more nuanced, but ultimately growth-oriented, environmental policies.
Technological Impact: Technological solutions for environmental problems get a boost due to broader perspectives, but efficiency trumps sustainability in many cases.
Ecological Impact: Limited environmental gains are made due to a focus on economic growth overriding deep ecological concerns, despite improved policies.
Economic Impact: Economic growth continues, fueled by resource extraction and consumption, despite gender-balanced delegations advocating for sustainable practices.
Political Impact: Increased international cooperation on climate issues occurs, but is often weakened by the prioritization of short-term economic gains over long-term environmental protection.
Narrative: Business-as-usual growth continues, with superficial improvements in environmental policies driven by gender-balanced delegations, failing to fundamentally address the root causes of ecological degradation.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Social unrest increases as climate change intensifies, creating fractures along gender and national lines amidst resource scarcity.
Technological Impact: Technology fails to provide adequate solutions, exacerbating existing inequalities and environmental degradation during societal breakdown.
Ecological Impact: Ecological systems collapse under the weight of unchecked climate change, triggering widespread resource shortages and displacement.
Economic Impact: The global economy collapses as climate-related disasters disrupt supply chains and deplete resources, leading to mass unemployment and poverty.
Political Impact: International cooperation breaks down as nations prioritize self-preservation, leading to conflicts over dwindling resources and climate refuges.
Narrative: Societal systems crumble under catastrophic climate impacts, rendering gender-balanced delegations irrelevant in the face of widespread chaos and resource wars.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict social controls are implemented to enforce climate policies and manage resource allocation, potentially impacting personal freedoms.
Technological Impact: Technology is deployed for surveillance and centralized control of resource consumption and environmental impact, raising privacy concerns.
Ecological Impact: Environmental protection is prioritized through strict regulations and monitoring, leading to a potential recovery of some ecosystems.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned economy is implemented to manage resources sustainably, potentially sacrificing individual economic freedom for collective good.
Political Impact: Authoritarian or highly regulated governance structures emerge to enforce climate policies and ensure compliance, limiting democratic processes.
Narrative: Authoritarian governments or powerful global bodies enforce strict environmental regulations to avert ecological disaster, sacrificing individual freedoms for the sake of planetary survival.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A fundamental shift in values promotes environmental stewardship and social equity, fostering collaborative solutions to climate change.
Technological Impact: Innovative technologies, driven by a new ethical framework, enable sustainable resource management and ecological restoration.
Ecological Impact: Ecological systems begin to recover and thrive as humanity adopts a regenerative relationship with nature, prioritizing biodiversity and ecosystem health.
Economic Impact: A circular and regenerative economy emerges, prioritizing well-being over endless growth and promoting equitable distribution of resources.
Political Impact: Decentralized and collaborative governance structures empower communities to manage their resources sustainably and participate in global climate action.
Narrative: A collective awakening leads to a radical transformation of values and systems, fostering a sustainable and equitable future where humanity lives in harmony with nature.
