Imagined Future Scenarios
Genetic Engineering, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from '‘Dengue Boy’ Is the Weird, Fleshy Novel You Need Right Now' - Wired
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: De-extinction becomes a profitable entertainment industry, driving a wedge between those who can afford to experience it and those who cannot.
Technological Impact: CRISPR technology rapidly advances, leading to the routine creation of hybrid and novel species for various purposes.
Ecological Impact: Resurrected species thrive in some areas, expanding biodiversity, but outcompete native species in others, causing irreversible disruption.
Economic Impact: A booming 'de-extinction economy' generates new jobs and industries in tourism, agriculture, and conservation, but exacerbates existing economic inequalities.
Political Impact: Lobbying from 'de-extinction corporations' influences environmental regulations, prioritizing economic growth over ecological sustainability.
Narrative: De-extinction becomes a commodity, fueling economic expansion and technological advancement at the expense of ecological balance and social equity.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Resurrected species cause widespread disruption, leading to social unrest and displacement as ecosystems collapse.
Technological Impact: Initial successes in de-extinction are followed by unforeseen ecological consequences, revealing the limits of CRISPR technology and ecological understanding.
Ecological Impact: The introduction of resurrected species triggers cascading ecological collapses, leading to widespread extinctions and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Ecological disasters decimate economies, causing widespread financial instability and resource wars.
Political Impact: Governments are overwhelmed by ecological crises and social unrest, leading to political instability and the breakdown of international cooperation.
Narrative: De-extinction backfires spectacularly, leading to environmental catastrophe and societal breakdown due to unforeseen consequences.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulations and social credit systems govern human interaction with resurrected species, controlling access and behavior.
Technological Impact: CRISPR technology is tightly controlled and regulated, with research focused on containment and management of resurrected species.
Ecological Impact: Resurrected species are managed within strictly controlled environments, monitored by advanced surveillance technologies.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned economy manages resources to prioritize ecological stability and controlled interaction with resurrected species.
Political Impact: A global governing body enforces strict environmental regulations and monitors the use of de-extinction technology to prevent ecological disasters.
Narrative: A highly controlled and regulated future emerges, where de-extinction is managed top-down to maintain ecological stability and prevent catastrophic consequences.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Humanity undergoes a fundamental shift in its understanding of life and its relationship with the natural world, leading to a more ecocentric society.
Technological Impact: De-extinction triggers advancements in ecological restoration and biomimicry, leading to sustainable technologies that harmonize with nature.
Ecological Impact: De-extinction becomes a tool for ecological healing and restoration, reintroducing keystone species to restore damaged ecosystems and enhance biodiversity.
Economic Impact: A circular economy emerges, focused on ecological sustainability and the intrinsic value of all life forms, integrating resurrected species into sustainable ecosystems.
Political Impact: Global governance shifts towards ecological stewardship, with policies prioritizing the well-being of all species and the long-term health of the planet.
Narrative: Humanity learns from its past mistakes and embraces a new paradigm of ecological stewardship, using de-extinction to heal the planet and build a sustainable future.
