Imagined Future Scenarios
Biotechnology, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Note on the Relationship Between Artificial Intelligence and Human Intelligence' - Vatican.va
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased lifespan and reduced disease burden lead to a larger, aging population with changing societal structures.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in AI, gene editing, and personalized medicine drive further innovation and technological convergence.
Ecological Impact: Increased resource consumption due to extended lifespans and growing population exacerbates existing environmental problems.
Economic Impact: A booming biotech industry fuels economic growth but also creates disparities in access to advanced healthcare.
Political Impact: Governments struggle to regulate the rapidly evolving gene editing technologies and address ethical concerns.
Narrative: Unfettered technological progress leads to longer, healthier lives, but exacerbates existing societal and environmental problems, pushing growth at all costs.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread mistrust in gene editing therapies and backlash against perceived inequalities lead to social unrest and fragmentation.
Technological Impact: Systemic failures in AI algorithms or CRISPR efficacy create catastrophic health outcomes and halt advancements.
Ecological Impact: Unintended ecological consequences from gene editing on ecosystems trigger severe environmental damage and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: The collapse of the biotech industry, coupled with healthcare system failures, leads to widespread economic depression.
Political Impact: Political instability and weakened governance structures hamper efforts to address the cascading crises.
Narrative: Overconfidence in AI-driven gene editing leads to systemic failures and unintended consequences, triggering a collapse of social, economic, and ecological systems.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulations and ethical guidelines govern gene editing, prioritizing collective well-being over individual choice.
Technological Impact: Focus shifts to standardized, safe, and accessible gene editing therapies under centralized control.
Ecological Impact: Gene editing is used to restore ecological balance and address climate change under a coordinated global effort.
Economic Impact: Healthcare and biotech are heavily regulated, with emphasis on equitable access to gene editing therapies deemed essential.
Political Impact: A global governance body enforces strict regulations and ethical standards for gene editing technologies.
Narrative: A top-down, globally coordinated effort ensures the responsible and equitable use of gene editing for the benefit of all, prioritizing safety and sustainability.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A fundamental shift in societal values towards holistic well-being and intergenerational equity leads to responsible gene editing practices.
Technological Impact: Gene editing and AI are integrated with a deeper understanding of human biology and consciousness, leading to truly personalized and transformative therapies.
Ecological Impact: Gene editing is used as a tool for ecological healing, working in harmony with natural systems to restore biodiversity and resilience.
Economic Impact: A circular economy model promotes sustainable and equitable access to gene editing technologies, minimizing waste and maximizing resource efficiency.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models empower communities to participate in ethical decision-making regarding gene editing applications.
Narrative: A profound shift in consciousness and values leads to the responsible and sustainable use of gene editing, fostering human flourishing and ecological harmony.
