A global carbon tax on aviation emissions is instituted, substantially increasing flight costs to incentivize sustainable aviation practices, forcing consumers to re-evaluate travel choices.

Imagined Future Scenarios

Chemistry, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)

Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News

Future Arc and Implications

Grow Arc

Social Impact: Increased social stratification as air travel becomes a luxury, creating a 'two-tiered' society.

Technological Impact: Rapid advancement in sustainable aviation fuels and electric aircraft technologies to meet continued demand.

Ecological Impact: Moderated but insufficient reduction in aviation emissions; ecological damage persists due to overall growth.

Economic Impact: Global economic growth continues, albeit with a shift towards alternative transportation and localized economies.

Political Impact: Increased international cooperation on climate agreements, but tensions remain over resource allocation and economic impact.

Narrative: Despite higher flight costs, global growth fuels demand for air travel, pushing innovation in sustainable aviation technology.

Collapse Arc

Social Impact: Significant social unrest and inequality due to severely restricted travel and economic hardship.

Technological Impact: Stagnation in aviation technology due to lack of investment and economic collapse.

Ecological Impact: Limited improvement in atmospheric carbon levels due to broader economic and societal disruption.

Economic Impact: Global economic recession, exacerbated by disruptions to international trade and tourism.

Political Impact: Political instability and fragmentation as governments struggle to manage the ecological and economic crisis.

Narrative: The carbon tax triggers a cascading economic and social collapse, with air travel drastically reduced.

Discipline Arc

Social Impact: Significant shifts in social behaviors, with reduced emphasis on global travel and increased focus on local communities.

Technological Impact: Strategic investment in sustainable aviation fuels and efficient, potentially government-controlled air travel.

Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in aviation emissions through strict regulations and planned resource management.

Economic Impact: Economic restructuring focused on sustainability and reduced reliance on international air travel.

Political Impact: Strong global governance and international cooperation in managing and regulating air travel.

Narrative: A global, coordinated effort through strict regulations and top-down management controls air travel and its impact.

Transform Arc

Social Impact: A paradigm shift in values, with a decline in the importance of global travel and a rise in local and virtual interconnectedness.

Technological Impact: Emergence of revolutionary propulsion systems (e.g., fusion power) or advanced telepresence technologies rendering air travel obsolete.

Ecological Impact: Near-elimination of aviation-related emissions due to technological breakthroughs and societal changes.

Economic Impact: A new economic model emerges focused on digital connectivity, local production, and sustainable practices.

Political Impact: A re-evaluation of national borders and global governance structures in light of reduced reliance on air travel.

Narrative: Radical technological advancements and fundamental shifts in societal values significantly reduce or eliminate the need for air travel.

Product ideas generated based on this scenario

Hyper-Efficient Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Refinery Network

A globally distributed network of small-scale, modular refineries that produce SAF from locally sourced, sustainable feedstocks (e.g., algae, waste biomass). This reduces transportation costs and environmental impact of SAF production, making it more competitive with traditional jet fuel.

Personalized Virtual Travel Experiences

A platform offering high-fidelity, immersive virtual tours and experiences that cater to individual travel desires, effectively replacing certain aspects of physical travel for leisure or business. This includes highly realistic virtual meetings and conferences.

Resilient Local Food Production System

A decentralized network of community-based food production units utilizing advanced hydroponics and vertical farming technologies, ensuring local food security in the face of disrupted global supply chains.

Hyper-Local Skills and Knowledge Exchange Platform

An online platform facilitating the sharing of skills and knowledge within and between local communities, fostering self-reliance and reducing the dependence on global travel for education and training.

Global Carbon Offset and Allocation System

A transparent, blockchain-based system that tracks and manages carbon emissions from air travel, enabling the efficient allocation of carbon credits and ensuring compliance with strict emission reduction targets.

High-Speed, Sustainable Ground Transportation Network

A globally interconnected network of high-speed, electrified ground transportation (e.g., maglev trains, hyperloops) reduces reliance on air travel for medium- and long-distance journeys.

Advanced Telepresence Robotics for Global Collaboration

Highly sophisticated robots equipped with advanced sensors and AI, allowing for seamless, real-time interaction and collaboration across geographical boundaries. Eliminating the necessity for physical travel for many professional and personal interactions.

Personalized Holographic Communication System

A system that enables realistic, life-size holographic communication between individuals irrespective of their location, providing a fully immersive communication experience that reduces the need for physical travel.

Projects inspired by this scenario

What if the skies went quiet?

Aerogel Membranes: Exhaling from the Wreckage: Biomimetic aerogel membranes, crafted from recycled aircraft battery materials, offer a sustainable water solution in a world grappling with the collapse of global aviation.