Imagined Future Scenarios
Chemistry, Possible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased air travel accessibility leads to greater globalization and cultural exchange, but also exacerbates existing inequalities.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in materials science drive further miniaturization and efficiency gains in aviation technology.
Ecological Impact: Reduced carbon emissions from air travel partially offset by increased flight frequency, necessitating further green innovations.
Economic Impact: Initially high ticket prices decrease as production scales, boosting the aviation industry and related sectors.
Political Impact: International collaborations on aviation regulations and emission standards become crucial, leading to new global governance frameworks.
Narrative: Mass adoption of lightweight aircraft leads to an era of unprecedented air travel, fueling economic growth and global interconnectedness.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Reduced air travel accessibility due to economic hardship and resource scarcity leads to social fragmentation and isolation.
Technological Impact: Development of new materials stagnates due to resource constraints and economic instability, hindering technological progress.
Ecological Impact: While initially promising, the increased air travel before the collapse further contributes to the environmental crisis.
Economic Impact: The aviation industry suffers a severe downturn, impacting related sectors and leading to widespread economic depression.
Political Impact: Global governance structures crumble amidst widespread crisis, unable to effectively address the challenges.
Narrative: Economic and ecological crises cripple the aviation industry, highlighting the fragility of a system heavily reliant on air travel.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulations govern air travel to optimize resource allocation and mitigate environmental impact, leading to more equitable distribution.
Technological Impact: Technological development is centrally planned and prioritized towards sustainable aviation solutions, driven by global cooperation.
Ecological Impact: Stringent environmental controls minimize the environmental footprint of air travel while favoring more sustainable alternatives.
Economic Impact: Air travel becomes a carefully managed resource with controlled pricing to balance affordability with sustainability goals.
Political Impact: Global governance organizations play a dominant role in controlling resource allocation and the future of the aviation industry.
Narrative: A planned economy manages air travel resources sustainably for the collective good, prioritizing environmental protection and equitable access.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Decentralized air travel emerges with personal air vehicles becoming common, redefining concepts of personal space and mobility.
Technological Impact: Revolutionary innovations in propulsion systems (e.g., fusion power) significantly reshape the aviation landscape beyond lightweight materials.
Ecological Impact: Air travel’s ecological impact is drastically reduced through revolutionary technologies, potentially leading to a net positive environmental effect.
Economic Impact: New economic models emerge, possibly bypassing traditional aviation industries based on decentralized personal transportation.
Political Impact: Existing political structures struggle to adapt to this fundamentally redefined transportation system, potentially leading to new governance models.
Narrative: A radical shift in propulsion and manufacturing leads to a future where personal air travel is commonplace, transforming society's structure.
