Imagined Future Scenarios
Chemistry, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased air travel accessibility leads to greater social mobility and global interconnectedness, but also exacerbates inequalities.
Technological Impact: Continuous improvement in SAF production and carbon capture technologies results in larger-scale deployment and lower costs.
Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in aviation's carbon footprint, but overall emissions remain high due to increased air travel demand.
Economic Impact: Expansion of SAF industry creates jobs and economic growth, although slightly higher fuel costs impact consumers.
Political Impact: International cooperation on carbon reduction targets and SAF standardization intensifies, with potential for trade disputes.
Narrative: A world of ever-increasing air travel fueled by sustainably produced but still costly SAF, leading to both ecological progress and growing inequalities.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Reduced air travel due to economic hardship and resource scarcity leads to social fragmentation and decreased global interaction.
Technological Impact: SAF production stagnates due to lack of investment and resource constraints; existing carbon capture technology struggles to maintain functionality.
Ecological Impact: Limited improvements in aviation's environmental impact, with climate change impacts exacerbating resource scarcity and instability.
Economic Impact: Economic instability reduces demand for SAF and stifles technological advancement, causing widespread economic hardship.
Political Impact: International cooperation crumbles as nations prioritize self-preservation, leading to conflicts over resources and trade routes.
Narrative: A world where climate change and economic collapse severely curtail air travel, rendering sophisticated carbon capture and SAF production irrelevant.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulations on air travel and carbon emissions lead to a more equitable distribution of resources but reduce individual freedoms.
Technological Impact: Government-funded investment in standardized, highly efficient SAF and carbon capture technologies results in widespread adoption.
Ecological Impact: Dramatic reduction in aviation's carbon footprint through stringent regulations and technological advancements.
Economic Impact: Centralized planning prioritizes environmental sustainability over economic growth, leading to potential social unrest.
Political Impact: Strong global governance structures enforce strict carbon reduction targets and regulate SAF production and distribution.
Narrative: A highly regulated world where air travel is carefully managed to minimize environmental impact, balancing environmental sustainability with social control.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift in societal values prioritizes environmental sustainability and local communities over global interconnectedness; air travel is significantly reduced.
Technological Impact: Radical innovations in propulsion technology and alternative transportation render SAF and carbon capture technologies largely obsolete.
Ecological Impact: Dramatic reduction in aviation's carbon footprint resulting from a paradigm shift towards alternative and sustainable transportation.
Economic Impact: Economic systems are fundamentally reshaped to prioritize sustainability and resilience, resulting in a decrease in overall economic output, but improved quality of life.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models prioritize local autonomy and community-based decision-making, lessening reliance on global institutions.
Narrative: A world beyond air travel as we know it, where fundamental shifts in values and technological breakthroughs create a low-carbon future.
