Imagined Future Scenarios
Chemistry, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased air travel accessibility leads to greater global interconnectedness and cultural exchange, but also exacerbates existing inequalities.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in battery chemistry and aviation design drive mass adoption of electric aircraft.
Ecological Impact: Reduced carbon emissions from air travel partially offset by increased overall flight volume.
Economic Impact: Booming air travel industry driven by affordable, sustainable air transport, creating new jobs and economic growth.
Political Impact: International cooperation on aviation standards and emissions regulations becomes crucial, potentially leading to new global governance structures.
Narrative: A world of widespread, affordable, and sustainable air travel fuels global economic growth and interconnectedness.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: High costs of electric aircraft concentrate air travel among the wealthy, stratifying society further.
Technological Impact: Progress in battery technology stalls due to resource scarcity and supply chain disruptions.
Ecological Impact: Limited progress in reducing overall emissions due to a failure to curtail air travel demand effectively.
Economic Impact: High manufacturing and operating costs of electric aircraft lead to an economic downturn in the aviation industry.
Political Impact: Increased social unrest due to unequal access to air travel and environmental degradation leads to political instability.
Narrative: The promise of sustainable air travel falters amid resource scarcity and economic instability, exacerbating existing inequalities.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Air travel is tightly regulated; access is prioritized for essential purposes, promoting fairness but limiting personal freedoms.
Technological Impact: Standardized, highly efficient electric aircraft designs are mandated to achieve sustainability goals.
Ecological Impact: Stringent emissions targets are met through controlled air travel and technological efficiency gains.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned aviation industry prioritizes sustainability and social equity over profit maximization.
Political Impact: Strong regulatory bodies strictly control all aspects of air travel, optimizing for environmental and societal well-being.
Narrative: Global authorities implement strict regulations on air travel, prioritizing sustainability and equity over individual freedoms.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift towards localized economies and reduced reliance on air travel alters societal values and priorities.
Technological Impact: Revolutionary battery technologies and alternative propulsion systems render traditional aircraft obsolete.
Ecological Impact: Air travel's environmental impact is drastically reduced due to a combination of technological advancements and changed societal needs.
Economic Impact: New industries emerge in sustainable transport technologies while the aviation industry undergoes a radical transformation.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models emerge, emphasizing local self-sufficiency and reduced dependence on globalized travel networks.
Narrative: A paradigm shift in transportation and societal values results in a world where air travel is dramatically less prevalent but more sustainable.
