Imagined Future Scenarios
Chemistry, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased air travel leads to greater global interconnectedness and cultural exchange, but also exacerbates inequalities.
Technological Impact: Further advancements in aviation technology, driven by increased demand, lead to even more efficient and affordable air travel.
Ecological Impact: Marginally lower fuel costs lead to a slight increase in air travel, resulting in a modest rise in carbon emissions.
Economic Impact: The aviation industry experiences significant growth, boosting related sectors and creating jobs, but widening the gap between developed and developing nations.
Political Impact: Increased international travel and trade strengthens global integration but also raises concerns about national sovereignty and security.
Narrative: Unconstrained global growth sees air travel become ubiquitous, further integrating a world increasingly reliant on air transport.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Reduced air travel due to economic hardship and infrastructure failure leads to social isolation and regional fragmentation.
Technological Impact: Maintenance and production of aircraft are severely hampered, leading to a decline in air travel and technological regression.
Ecological Impact: A decline in air travel contributes marginally to reduced carbon emissions and pollution, but broader ecological collapse overshadows these benefits.
Economic Impact: The aviation industry collapses, causing widespread unemployment and economic recession, with ripple effects across other sectors.
Political Impact: Political instability and resource scarcity lead to border closures and the breakdown of international cooperation, hindering air travel.
Narrative: Systemic failures cripple the global economy and infrastructure, causing a dramatic decline in air travel, highlighting the fragility of interconnected systems.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Stricter regulations on air travel, potentially including carbon taxes, lead to increased social control and reduced freedom of movement.
Technological Impact: Technological development focuses on sustainable aviation fuels and other efficiency measures, guided by stringent regulations.
Ecological Impact: Governments implement strict carbon emission limits, leading to a significant reduction in air travel and a reduction in ecological impact.
Economic Impact: A controlled and regulated aviation industry prioritizes sustainability over unrestrained growth, potentially leading to a more equitable distribution of resources.
Political Impact: Global governance structures enforce strict regulations on air travel, prioritizing ecological sustainability and social equity over individual freedom.
Narrative: A centrally planned global economy prioritizes sustainability and environmental protection, resulting in reduced but more-equitably distributed air travel.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift away from air travel occurs due to a move towards localized economies and new forms of communication and transportation.
Technological Impact: Radical innovation renders traditional aircraft obsolete, potentially through advancements in alternative propulsion systems or hyper-speed transportation.
Ecological Impact: The ecological impact of air travel diminishes significantly due to the adoption of transformative technologies and changes in societal values.
Economic Impact: New industries emerge, and old ones are repurposed after the relative decline of air travel, resulting in a fundamental restructuring of the economy.
Political Impact: A decentralized and sustainable political order emerges, potentially facilitated by advancements in communication and transportation technologies.
Narrative: Revolutionary technological and societal changes fundamentally alter transportation patterns, rendering traditional air travel largely obsolete.
