Imagined Future Scenarios
Chemistry, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Can flights really reach net zero by 2050 - and what will it cost holidaymakers?' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased air travel accessibility with slightly higher fares, leading to greater social mobility and tourism.
Technological Impact: Advanced biorefineries and process optimization significantly increase SAF production efficiency.
Ecological Impact: Reduced carbon emissions from aviation, but potential for increased land use depending on feedstock choices.
Economic Impact: Growth in SAF industry creates jobs, but higher airfares impact consumer spending.
Political Impact: International cooperation on SAF standards and feedstock sourcing becomes crucial.
Narrative: Global air travel expands sustainably, fueled by efficient and diverse SAF production.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Reduced air travel due to high costs and economic instability, leading to social isolation and decreased global interconnectedness.
Technological Impact: SAF production hampered by resource scarcity and energy crises; technological advancements stall.
Ecological Impact: Climate change intensifies, overwhelming the positive impact of SAF, leading to extreme weather events affecting air travel.
Economic Impact: Global economic downturn severely limits investment in SAF development and aviation infrastructure.
Political Impact: National focus on self-sufficiency and resource security causes trade wars, limiting SAF supply chains.
Narrative: Climate change and economic collapse severely restrict air travel despite SAF development.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Stricter air travel regulations and carbon offsetting schemes are implemented, influencing travel habits.
Technological Impact: Governments heavily invest in SAF technologies and enforce stringent efficiency standards.
Ecological Impact: Carbon emissions are aggressively reduced through mandated SAF usage and controlled air travel.
Economic Impact: Carbon taxes and subsidies drive SAF adoption, impacting airfares and the competitiveness of airlines.
Political Impact: International agreements strictly regulate aviation emissions and SAF production strategies.
Narrative: Governments globally enforce top-down solutions to regulate and control aviation emissions through SAF.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Shift in values prioritizes sustainable travel, promoting alternative modes and reducing overall air travel demand.
Technological Impact: Radical innovations like advanced propulsion systems and bio-integrated fuel sources replace traditional jet fuel.
Ecological Impact: Near-zero carbon emissions from aviation achieved through a combination of technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes.
Economic Impact: New economic models emerge, decoupling economic growth from aviation fuel consumption.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models support local, sustainable air travel solutions and prioritize ecological balance.
Narrative: Fundamental shifts in societal values and technological breakthroughs revolutionize aviation, rendering traditional SAF obsolete.
