Imagined Future Scenarios
Physics, Probable Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Meet 45 rising stars of the venture capital industry who stood out in 2024' - Business Insider
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased material abundance leads to higher living standards and population growth, but exacerbates inequality.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancement in materials science drives innovation across all sectors, creating new industries and jobs.
Ecological Impact: Unsustainable resource extraction and manufacturing processes worsen environmental degradation.
Economic Impact: Global economic expansion fueled by new materials, but with potential for resource scarcity-driven inflation.
Political Impact: Competition for resources and dominance in new material technologies intensifies geopolitical tensions.
Narrative: Unfettered growth driven by new materials leads to a resource-intensive but materially prosperous world.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and resource wars erupt due to shortages and inequality.
Technological Impact: Technological progress stalls as resource scarcity and infrastructure collapse hinder innovation.
Ecological Impact: Severe environmental damage leads to widespread ecological collapse and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Global economic systems break down due to resource scarcity, supply chain disruptions, and extreme volatility.
Political Impact: Nationalism and authoritarianism rise as governments struggle to maintain order amid chaos.
Narrative: Over-reliance on new materials and unsustainable practices leads to a catastrophic societal breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Society is highly regulated, ensuring equitable distribution of new materials and minimizing environmental impact.
Technological Impact: Technological development is carefully planned and prioritizes sustainability and social benefit.
Ecological Impact: Environmental damage is significantly mitigated through strict regulations and resource management.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned economy prioritizes sustainability and social equality, potentially limiting innovation.
Political Impact: Strong global governance and centralized control ensure stability and resource allocation.
Narrative: A global governing body strictly manages the development and distribution of new materials for societal equilibrium.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: New materials facilitate a paradigm shift in societal structures, lifestyles, and human capabilities.
Technological Impact: Revolutionary technologies, based on new materials, completely reshape industries and infrastructures.
Ecological Impact: New materials enable environmentally-friendly technologies and restorative ecological solutions.
Economic Impact: Economic models transition beyond material-centric growth towards sustainability and well-being metrics.
Political Impact: Power structures are decentralized, fostering collaboration and community-driven solutions.
Narrative: New materials catalyze a fundamental transformation of human society, technology, and the relationship with nature.
