Imagined Future Scenarios
Legal Studies, Possible Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Germany's one million Syrians at centre of fierce debate over their future' - BBC News
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased efficiency leads to higher asylum processing, but potentially exacerbates existing social inequalities if access to technology is uneven.
Technological Impact: AI and data analytics become highly sophisticated, creating more accurate and efficient asylum evaluation systems globally.
Ecological Impact: Increased migration due to faster processing may have localized ecological impacts depending on destination areas.
Economic Impact: Faster processing reduces costs associated with asylum claims, freeing up resources for other government functions.
Political Impact: Governments face pressure to scale AI systems, leading to more international collaboration and standardization of asylum processes.
Narrative: Global adoption of AI-driven asylum processing systems leads to increased migration and economic growth, but significant social disparities remain.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: System failures in AI-driven asylum processing exacerbate existing anxieties and inequalities, leading to social unrest.
Technological Impact: AI systems are overwhelmed, resulting in processing delays and inaccuracies, undermining trust in the system.
Ecological Impact: Environmental disasters cause mass migration, overwhelming the AI-based asylum system and creating humanitarian crises.
Economic Impact: Economic instability disrupts funding for AI-driven asylum processing, leading to slowdowns and inefficiencies.
Political Impact: Political instability and resource scarcity cause governments to curtail or abandon AI-based asylum systems.
Narrative: Overreliance on AI for asylum processing leads to system failures amidst broader societal collapse, creating chaos and human rights violations.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Standardized, AI-driven asylum evaluations create a more uniform, but potentially less compassionate, approach to immigration.
Technological Impact: Sophisticated AI systems are integrated into a global surveillance and control network affecting all aspects of migration.
Ecological Impact: Controlled migration patterns based on AI assessment limit ecological impact in certain areas, but could create new ones elsewhere.
Economic Impact: Efficient and transparent asylum processing under centralized control improves resource allocation and reduces economic waste.
Political Impact: A global governing body uses AI to regulate and control migration flows precisely, limiting national sovereignty.
Narrative: A globally coordinated system using AI strictly manages migration, creating efficiency but potentially sacrificing individual rights.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A new understanding of human rights evolves, challenging traditional notions of borders and citizenship, shifting asylum procedures significantly.
Technological Impact: AI is used not just to process but to understand and empathize with asylum seekers, leading to a more just and humane system.
Ecological Impact: Sustainable migration patterns are encouraged through AI-driven resource management, linking asylum processes with climate change mitigation.
Economic Impact: AI fosters economic opportunities for asylum seekers, promoting self-sufficiency and reducing the economic burden on host countries.
Political Impact: A paradigm shift toward human-centric governance leads to more compassionate and effective immigration policies globally.
Narrative: AI fosters a revolutionary reimagining of asylum procedures, leading to a more equitable and ecologically sustainable approach to migration.
