Imagined Future Scenarios
Economics, Possible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Banks’ Three Wishes For The Holidays' - Forbes
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased investment in green technologies leads to higher living standards and reduced inequality, but also increased consumption.
Technological Impact: Blockchain technology integration expands, creating new financial instruments and data-driven solutions for sustainability.
Ecological Impact: Significant progress in mitigating climate change, but continued resource depletion and biodiversity loss.
Economic Impact: Rapid expansion of sustainable finance markets fuels global economic growth, but creates new economic disparities.
Political Impact: International cooperation strengthens around climate action, but conflicts arise over resource allocation and market dominance.
Narrative: Sustainable finance booms, driving economic growth and environmental progress, while widening social and political divides.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest due to resource scarcity and economic instability undermines trust in financial systems.
Technological Impact: Blockchain technology adoption falters due to systemic failures and lack of robust infrastructure.
Ecological Impact: Climate change intensifies, leading to catastrophic events and widespread ecological damage, overshadowing investment efforts.
Economic Impact: Global financial markets collapse due to climate-related damage and lack of investor confidence.
Political Impact: International cooperation crumbles in the face of crises, causing political instability and conflict.
Narrative: Climate change and economic instability undermine trust in both the blockchain and the financial system, leading to societal breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Globally coordinated efforts towards sustainability result in significant behavioral changes and social conformity.
Technological Impact: Strict regulations govern blockchain use in sustainable finance, maximizing transparency and control.
Ecological Impact: Aggressive sustainability goals are achieved through top-down policies, but at the cost of individual freedom.
Economic Impact: Global economy is centrally planned to optimize environmental outcomes, but economic growth slows.
Political Impact: Powerful international institutions oversee sustainable finance, resulting in centralized global governance.
Narrative: A centralized world governance system uses blockchain to meticulously manage global resources and enforce environmental goals.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift towards localized, community-based economies fosters strong social bonds and increased self-sufficiency.
Technological Impact: Decentralized blockchain applications enable peer-to-peer finance and resource sharing, empowering communities.
Ecological Impact: Ecological restoration and regeneration projects are prioritized, leading to improved biodiversity and climate resilience.
Economic Impact: New economic models prioritize ecological well-being and localized prosperity over global growth.
Political Impact: Local governance is strengthened, while global political power structures shift, favoring collaboration over competition.
Narrative: A decentralized, ecologically-focused economic system thrives, enabled by community-driven blockchain solutions, transforming social structures and global governance.
