Imagined Future Scenarios
Economics, Plausible Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Banks’ Three Wishes For The Holidays' - Forbes
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequality as green initiatives benefit some more than others.
Technological Impact: Accelerated development of green technologies and financial tracking systems.
Ecological Impact: Moderate improvement in environmental indicators, but still unsustainable growth.
Economic Impact: Strong economic growth driven by green investments, but with potential for bubbles.
Political Impact: Increased regulation and international cooperation on environmental matters.
Narrative: Rapid green growth fueled by financial incentives, but with widening inequality and ecological limits.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest due to economic hardship and environmental degradation.
Technological Impact: Technological stagnation and breakdown of critical infrastructure.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological collapse with widespread resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Global economic depression and financial system instability.
Political Impact: Political instability, conflict, and potential for authoritarianism.
Narrative: ESG regulations fail as financial instability and ecological collapse trigger societal breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Increased social control with strict adherence to sustainability goals.
Technological Impact: Focus on efficient and standardized green technologies, limiting innovation.
Ecological Impact: Stabilization of ecological indicators via strict resource management.
Economic Impact: Stable but slower economic growth with centralized resource allocation.
Political Impact: Strong central governance with increased monitoring and enforcement of regulations.
Narrative: A planned economy emerges, prioritizing sustainability over individual liberty and innovation.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Emergence of new social values prioritizing sustainability and community over material growth.
Technological Impact: Breakthroughs in clean energy and circular economy technologies drive radical change.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological recovery and transition to sustainable systems.
Economic Impact: Decoupling of economic growth from resource consumption.
Political Impact: Emergence of new political systems prioritizing ecological well-being and social equity.
Narrative: A fundamental shift in values and technologies leads to a sustainable and equitable future, exceeding current expectations.
