Imagined Future Scenarios
Economics, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Banks’ Three Wishes For The Holidays' - Forbes
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased global prosperity and equity, but also rising inequality alongside burgeoning populations.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancement in green technologies and infrastructure, driven by massive investment.
Ecological Impact: Significant reduction in emissions, but still faces challenges from growing consumption.
Economic Impact: Global economic growth fueled by sustainable investments and innovation.
Political Impact: Increased international cooperation on climate and sustainable development, but also potential for conflict over resources.
Narrative: A future of sustainable growth, where technological innovation and investment propel both economic advancement and ecological regeneration.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and disruption due to resource scarcity and ecological breakdown.
Technological Impact: Technological progress stalled or reversed due to resource constraints and economic instability.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage, exceeding planetary boundaries and triggering cascading failures.
Economic Impact: Global economic decline and financial instability, threatening the sustainability finance system itself.
Political Impact: Increased political instability and potential for authoritarianism amidst societal breakdown.
Narrative: Despite initial progress, the system is overwhelmed by ecological pressures and social inequalities, leading to widespread collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulation and social engineering to achieve sustainability goals, limiting individual freedoms.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements focused on efficiency and resource optimization under strict governmental control.
Ecological Impact: Significant progress towards net-zero, but at the cost of individual liberties and economic dynamism.
Economic Impact: Stabilized economy under strict centralized planning, prioritized towards ecological stability over growth.
Political Impact: Rise of strong, centralized governments enforcing strict environmental and economic regulations.
Narrative: A future where sustainability is achieved through strict global governance and controlled resource allocation.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Fundamental shift in values, prioritizing community, well-being, and ecological harmony.
Technological Impact: Emergence of disruptive technologies and innovative solutions enabling a circular economy and ecological regeneration.
Ecological Impact: Radical ecological regeneration and restoration of natural ecosystems, achieved not solely by policy, but by societal transformation.
Economic Impact: Emergence of post-growth or degrowth economic models focusing on wellbeing and resilience rather than GDP.
Political Impact: Shift towards decentralized, participatory governance models that are more responsive to ecological and social needs.
Narrative: A profound societal transformation driven by a new set of values and innovative technologies, resulting in a regenerative and resilient society.
