Imagined Future Scenarios
Economics, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Banks’ Three Wishes For The Holidays' - Forbes
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequality and social unrest due to uneven access to resources.
Technological Impact: Continued reliance on carbon-intensive technologies, despite some green innovations.
Ecological Impact: Accelerated climate change and resource depletion, exceeding tipping points.
Economic Impact: Short-term economic growth fueled by unsustainable practices, leading to future instability.
Political Impact: Weakening global cooperation on climate action, leading to fragmented policy responses.
Narrative: Business-as-usual continues, leading to escalating environmental and social crises.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal disruption and mass migrations due to climate-related events.
Technological Impact: Breakdown of critical infrastructure due to resource scarcity and climate change.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage, potentially leading to significant biodiversity loss and resource scarcity.
Economic Impact: Global economic recession or depression triggered by ecological and societal collapse.
Political Impact: Rise of authoritarianism and conflict over dwindling resources.
Narrative: Environmental and economic instability trigger a cascade of failures, leading to societal breakdown.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Increased social control and limitations on personal freedoms in the name of sustainability.
Technological Impact: Rapid deployment of green technologies through top-down mandates and resource allocation.
Ecological Impact: Stabilization, but possibly at the cost of biodiversity and ecosystem health.
Economic Impact: Regulated economic growth prioritized for sustainability and resource management.
Political Impact: Rise of strong central governments or international agreements enforcing sustainability policies.
Narrative: Global authorities enforce strict environmental regulations, leading to a more controlled, but potentially less equitable world.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Fundamental shift in societal values prioritizing ecological harmony and sustainability.
Technological Impact: Emergence of radical, innovative technologies enabling circular economies and carbon drawdown.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological regeneration facilitated by technological and societal transformation.
Economic Impact: Decoupling of economic growth from resource consumption and environmental impact.
Political Impact: Emergence of new governance models focused on global cooperation and ecological justice.
Narrative: A profound shift in societal values and technological innovation leads to a sustainable and equitable future.
