Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'COP29 Puts World on Course for More Extreme Weather – and More Deaths' - Nakedcapitalism.com
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequality despite improved environmental conditions, with robust population growth straining resources.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in green technologies drive sustainable economic growth, but require substantial resource investment.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological recovery, but biodiversity loss persists, and carrying capacity limits are approached.
Economic Impact: Global economy transitions to sustainability, with fluctuations due to resource scarcity and shifts in production.
Political Impact: Global governance strengthens, but conflicts arise due to differential capacity and access to green technologies.
Narrative: A world of sustainable growth, managing ecological limits alongside increasing populations and consumption.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and displacement due to abrupt climate shifts and resource scarcity, undermining cooperation.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements are hampered by resource constraints and societal breakdown, hindering adaptation efforts.
Ecological Impact: Severe environmental degradation overwhelms mitigation efforts, leading to widespread ecosystem collapse.
Economic Impact: Global economic collapse due to cascading failures in critical systems, with widespread poverty and famine.
Political Impact: Global governance fragments, with states prioritizing self-preservation leading to conflict and instability.
Narrative: Despite initial global cooperation, late and insufficient action triggers cascading ecological and societal collapses.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Significant limitations on individual freedoms in the name of environmental sustainability, resulting in societal tension.
Technological Impact: Technological development heavily prioritized for climate stabilization and resource management, under strict control.
Ecological Impact: Stable, but less biodiverse environment, emphasizing resource efficiency and ecosystem restoration.
Economic Impact: Planned economy managed for environmental sustainability, with reduced consumption and emphasis on resource efficiency.
Political Impact: Powerful global governance structures enforce environmental regulations, potentially leading to authoritarian tendencies.
Narrative: A world governed by strict climate protocols, where individual freedoms are curtailed for environmental stability.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Significant societal shifts towards greater sustainability, driven by new values and priorities, emphasizing community and cooperation.
Technological Impact: Radical technological breakthroughs in clean energy and resource management create a prosperous, low-impact society.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystems flourish with significant biodiversity recovery, demonstrating the resilience of nature.
Economic Impact: Economic systems are redesigned for sustainability and social equity, prioritizing wellbeing and reducing consumption.
Political Impact: A more decentralized and participatory global governance system, emphasizing collaboration and equitable distribution of resources.
Narrative: A profound societal transformation driven by innovative technologies and values, resulting in a sustainable and thriving world.
