Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Could Humans Hibernate?' - Aeon.co
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased economic disparity due to uneven access to enhanced weather prediction technologies.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in weather prediction spur innovation in precision agriculture and resource management.
Ecological Impact: Continued environmental degradation despite improved short-term mitigation efforts.
Economic Impact: Booming market for climate prediction services benefits a select few, exacerbating wealth inequality.
Political Impact: Focus remains on economic growth, with minimal constraint on resource consumption despite improved prediction.
Narrative: Unfettered growth continues, with improved weather predictions marginally mitigating climate change impacts but failing to address root causes.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social unrest and displacement due to extreme weather events, despite improved short-term forecasts.
Technological Impact: Existing infrastructure overwhelmed and fails due to unpredictable climate-driven events, even with better prediction.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage from cascading effects of climate change overwhelms natural systems.
Economic Impact: Global economic devastation from widespread resource scarcity, food insecurity, and infrastructure collapse.
Political Impact: Breakdown of governance structures and the emergence of authoritarian regimes amid chaos.
Narrative: Improved weather prediction offers limited help as climate change triggers widespread societal and ecological collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict centralized regulations and population control measures implemented based on accurate weather predictions.
Technological Impact: Advancements in weather prediction empower a strong centralized authority to manage resources efficiently.
Ecological Impact: Ecological damage is mitigated through strict quotas and resource allocation, but biodiversity remains threatened.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned economy optimizes resource use based on climate projections, achieving stability but limiting individual freedoms.
Political Impact: A powerful global governing body enforces strict climate regulations minimizing environmental damage but at the cost of individual liberties.
Narrative: A global governing body utilizes improved forecasts to implement harsh but effective climate mitigation measures.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Societal values shift towards sustainability and resilience, facilitated by accurate short-term prediction.
Technological Impact: Decentralized technologies empowered by accurate forecasts revolutionize renewable energy production and resource management.
Ecological Impact: Emphasis on ecological restoration and human adaptation lead to a more harmonious relationship with nature.
Economic Impact: Circular economy models flourish, driven by accurate predictions enabling efficient resource reuse and waste reduction.
Political Impact: Governing structures become more localized, participatory, and focused on climate adaptation and resilience.
Narrative: Accurate predictions trigger a fundamental social and technological shift toward a sustainable and resilient future.
