Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Pete Hegseth Might Be Trump’s Most Dangerous Cabinet Pick' - The Atlantic
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased migration and inequality due to uneven distribution of extreme weather preparedness.
Technological Impact: Advanced forecasting fuels a booming climate tech industry focused on mitigation and adaptation.
Ecological Impact: Continued ecological degradation despite improved localized preparedness, resulting in biodiversity loss.
Economic Impact: Global economy adapts to long-term climate risks, but with uneven costs and benefits, exacerbating existing inequalities.
Political Impact: Increased geopolitical tension over resource allocation and migration, leading to conflicts and stronger nationalistic policies.
Narrative: Society continues its growth trajectory, leveraging advanced forecasting to manage but not fundamentally alter its impact on the environment.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal disruption and mass migrations due to cascading climate disasters.
Technological Impact: Breakdown of critical infrastructure, hindering the ability to effectively implement climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage resulting in widespread resource scarcity; ecosystem collapse is widespread.
Economic Impact: Global economic downturn due to multiple environmental failures and infrastructure breakdown, creating mass poverty.
Political Impact: Loss of governmental authority leading to widespread anarchy and conflict as resources become scarce.
Narrative: Advanced weather forecasting fails to prevent societal collapse due to the scale and speed of climate change impacts.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict societal regulations and resource management prioritize minimizing climate impacts, potentially leading to limitations on freedoms.
Technological Impact: Robust and centralized technological systems are implemented for climate control and resource allocation.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystem health is stabilized through strict conservation efforts and adaptation technologies, but at high costs.
Economic Impact: A highly regulated economy prioritizing sustainability over growth leads to reduced waste, but also potentially lower standards of living for some.
Political Impact: A strong global government or coordinated international effort enforces strict climate policies, potentially compromising individual liberties.
Narrative: Humanity, facing imminent threat, implements rigorous, global-scale climate management, prioritizing order and control.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A fundamental shift in values prioritizing sustainability and community resilience; altered lifestyles and consumption patterns.
Technological Impact: Technological solutions integrate seamlessly with nature, prioritizing symbiotic relationships with the environment.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystem restoration and regeneration become widespread, improving biodiversity and resilience to extreme weather.
Economic Impact: Economic models shift away from material consumption towards a circular economy focused on resource efficiency and societal wellbeing.
Political Impact: New governance models prioritize local autonomy, sustainability, and collaborative decision-making; global cooperation emerges naturally.
Narrative: Long-term forecasting sparks a cultural and technological revolution prioritizing planetary health, leading to a sustainable and equitable future.
