Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Pete Hegseth Might Be Trump’s Most Dangerous Cabinet Pick' - The Atlantic
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Mass migration leads to increased social stratification and unrest, exacerbating existing inequalities.
Technological Impact: Technological solutions focus on managing migration flows and resource allocation, but exacerbate environmental strain.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystems further degrade under continued resource extraction to support a growing population and migration needs.
Economic Impact: Economic disparity widens between migrant populations and settled communities, hindering global economic stability.
Political Impact: Global governance struggles to address climate migration, leading to increased nationalism and international conflicts over resources.
Narrative: Unfettered growth exacerbates climate migration, resulting in a world of escalating resource conflicts and social unrest.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal breakdown due to resource scarcity, famine, and violent conflict; mass casualties and displacement.
Technological Impact: Infrastructure failures and technological regression cripple essential services; limited capacity to address mass migration.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecosystem collapse leads to uninhabitable regions and unpredictable environmental disasters.
Economic Impact: Global economic system implodes, leading to widespread poverty, famine, and societal dysfunction.
Political Impact: State failure and collapse of global order lead to localized power struggles and widespread anarchy.
Narrative: Climate migration triggers a cascade of system failures, leading to widespread societal collapse and chaos.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict resource management and population control programs suppress individual freedoms but maintain social order.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements focused on resource efficiency and climate adaptation are prioritized and tightly controlled.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystems are carefully managed through top-down interventions; biodiversity loss is mitigated but at the cost of ecological spontaneity.
Economic Impact: Centralized economic planning and controlled resource distribution ensure stability but limit individual economic freedom.
Political Impact: Authoritarian global governance or regional alliances manage migration and resource allocation with centralized control.
Narrative: A global or regional authority enacts strict measures to manage climate migration, prioritizing order and stability over individual liberty.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Societal values shift toward resilience, cooperation, and community-based solutions; new social structures emerge.
Technological Impact: Technological innovation focuses on climate adaptation, renewable energy, and sustainable resource management.
Ecological Impact: Ecosystem restoration and biodiversity recovery are prioritized, leading to ecological regeneration and climate stability.
Economic Impact: New economic models prioritize sustainability and equitable resource distribution, fostering resilience and reducing inequality.
Political Impact: Global cooperation and decentralized governance models emerge, prioritizing environmental stewardship and climate justice.
Narrative: A profound societal shift towards sustainability and global cooperation leads to a more equitable and resilient world, adapting to climate migration effectively.
