Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Pete Hegseth Might Be Trump’s Most Dangerous Cabinet Pick' - The Atlantic
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequality as adaptation benefits unevenly distributed across populations.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancement in adaptation technologies, driven by high demand and funding.
Ecological Impact: Stabilization, but not reversal, of some ecological damage; continued biodiversity loss.
Economic Impact: Significant economic investment in adaptation, potentially boosting some sectors but increasing overall debt.
Political Impact: Strengthened international cooperation on climate adaptation, but competition for resources remains intense.
Narrative: A world where continued economic growth prioritizes adaptation measures, mitigating some climate impacts but exacerbating existing inequalities.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Mass migration and social unrest due to widespread resource scarcity and climate-induced disasters.
Technological Impact: Breakdown of infrastructure and supply chains, hindering adaptation efforts.
Ecological Impact: Widespread ecosystem collapse leads to further destabilization and loss of resources.
Economic Impact: Global economic downturn fueled by climate-related disasters and resource scarcity.
Political Impact: Weakened governance structures and potential for authoritarianism to manage crises.
Narrative: A future where climate impacts overwhelm adaptation efforts, leading to widespread societal breakdown and system collapse.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Reduced individual freedoms in the name of climate adaptation; enforced rationing and resource management.
Technological Impact: Strategic deployment of adaptation technologies with a focus on efficiency and sustainability.
Ecological Impact: Significant improvement in ecological health through strict environmental regulations.
Economic Impact: Centralized planning and resource allocation, potentially leading to economic stagnation or controlled growth.
Political Impact: Strong, centralized governments enforce strict climate adaptation policies with minimal public dissent.
Narrative: A future where strong, centralized governing bodies implement stringent climate adaptation plans, prioritizing stability over individual freedoms.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Radical societal shifts towards greater community resilience and localized self-sufficiency.
Technological Impact: Development and deployment of innovative, nature-based solutions and sustainable technologies.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological regeneration through a blend of technological and ecological restoration efforts.
Economic Impact: Shift towards circular economy and degrowth models, prioritizing ecological and social well-being.
Political Impact: Emergence of new governance models that prioritize ecological and social justice.
Narrative: A future where a fundamental shift in values and technological breakthroughs lead to a sustainable, resilient, and equitable society.
