Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Three-Quarters of the Earth Has Gotten Permanently Drier' - Time
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Massive social unrest and migration due to food scarcity, exacerbated by population growth.
Technological Impact: Rapid development and deployment of vertical farming and alternative protein sources, but uneven access.
Ecological Impact: Further desertification and biodiversity loss due to increased demand for resources.
Economic Impact: Hyperinflation and global economic instability driven by food price spikes.
Political Impact: Increased authoritarianism and conflict over dwindling resources, weakening international cooperation.
Narrative: A desperate scramble for resources amidst continued population growth and unsustainable practices.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread famine, disease, and societal breakdown due to lack of food and essential services.
Technological Impact: Significant decline in technological innovation and infrastructure maintenance.
Ecological Impact: Accelerated environmental degradation due to societal collapse and lack of management.
Economic Impact: Complete economic meltdown and widespread poverty.
Political Impact: State failure and the rise of localized power struggles.
Narrative: A catastrophic societal collapse triggered by widespread famine and resource scarcity.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict rationing and social control measures to manage food distribution and prevent unrest.
Technological Impact: Investment in climate-resilient agriculture and resource management technologies enforced by the state.
Ecological Impact: Slowing, but not reversing, desertification through top-down resource management.
Economic Impact: Severe economic contraction and centrally planned resource allocation.
Political Impact: Strong central authority with limited individual freedoms enforced to manage resource distribution.
Narrative: A starkly controlled and regimented society focused on survival and resource management.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Significant shifts in cultural values towards sustainability and resilience; new social structures emerge.
Technological Impact: Breakthroughs in sustainable food production, including cellular agriculture and precision farming.
Ecological Impact: Regeneration efforts focused on reversing desertification through innovative ecological solutions.
Economic Impact: A new economic model emerges focused on sustainability, local resilience, and equitable resource distribution.
Political Impact: Emergence of decentralized, collaborative governance structures based on ecological principles.
Narrative: A fundamental societal transformation driven by innovation and a new relationship with nature.
