Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset' - Wired
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequality as geoengineering benefits the wealthy, while environmental issues persist for the poor.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in geoengineering technologies, coupled with increased resource consumption.
Ecological Impact: Unintended ecological consequences outweigh benefits, leading to biodiversity loss and novel ecosystem instability.
Economic Impact: Geoengineering creates new industries and jobs but exacerbates existing economic inequalities.
Political Impact: Geoengineering becomes a source of international conflict and power struggles.
Narrative: A world of unchecked growth, where geoengineering temporarily masks the symptoms of climate change, leading to a future of deeper ecological instability.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Mass migrations and societal breakdown due to resource scarcity and extreme weather events, despite geoengineering efforts.
Technological Impact: Geoengineering systems fail, leading to cascading societal and ecological collapse.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage from failed geoengineering, combined with climate change effects, renders large parts of the planet uninhabitable.
Economic Impact: Global economic systems collapse due to resource scarcity, climate-related damage, and societal unrest.
Political Impact: Governance structures collapse, replaced by localized power struggles and conflict.
Narrative: A dystopian future where geoengineering's failure accelerates climate-driven collapse, resulting in widespread chaos and societal fragmentation.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict regulations and social control to ensure effective geoengineering deployment and resource management.
Technological Impact: Precise and highly-controlled geoengineering systems, managed by a global authority.
Ecological Impact: Ecological damage is minimized through careful, albeit still impactful, geoengineering interventions.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned global economy prioritizing sustainability over growth.
Political Impact: A highly centralized global governance system manages geoengineering and resource allocation.
Narrative: A tightly controlled world where a powerful global authority governs both climate through geoengineering and society through strict regulations.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A re-evaluation of human relationship with nature, leading to a profound shift in societal values and priorities.
Technological Impact: Geoengineering is integrated into a more sustainable technological paradigm focused on ecological restoration.
Ecological Impact: Geoengineering plays a role in ecological restoration and reducing climate change impacts, with a focus on resilience.
Economic Impact: A transition to a circular economy with a focus on regenerative practices and reduced consumption.
Political Impact: Decentralized and cooperative governance models emerge, prioritizing ecological integrity and equity.
Narrative: A world where geoengineering acts as a catalyst for a fundamental societal shift towards sustainability, resilience, and ecological harmony.
