Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset' - Wired
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased global population and consumption lead to a rise in resource demand, despite renewable energy.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in renewable energy technologies and infrastructure drive further growth.
Ecological Impact: Increased resource consumption partially offset by reduced carbon emissions, but still significant ecological strain.
Economic Impact: Global economy expands driven by renewable energy sector, but inequalities may persist or worsen.
Political Impact: Increased competition for resources and geopolitical shifts related to renewable energy dominance.
Narrative: A world of booming renewable energy driving economic growth, but facing persistent environmental challenges due to continued consumption.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal disruption and unrest due to resource scarcity and climate change impacts.
Technological Impact: Technological progress hampered by resource constraints and systemic collapse.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage and biodiversity loss due to climate change and resource depletion.
Economic Impact: Global economic downturn and widespread poverty.
Political Impact: Breakdown of governance structures and rise of authoritarianism or localized conflicts.
Narrative: A future where despite renewable energy advancements, societal collapse occurs due to pre-existing vulnerabilities and environmental degradation.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Strict resource management results in reduced consumption and a more equitable societal structure.
Technological Impact: Technological advancements focused on sustainability and efficient resource utilization under centralized planning.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological recovery due to reduced resource usage and targeted conservation efforts.
Economic Impact: Reduced economic growth but higher quality of life due to reduced inequality and prioritized well-being.
Political Impact: Strong centralized governance controlling resource allocation and technological innovation.
Narrative: A future where global cooperation and stringent regulations lead to a sustainable society with managed growth and resource allocation.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A shift towards localized economies and community-based living, emphasizing sustainability and resilience.
Technological Impact: Decentralized, community-owned renewable energy systems, alongside innovative technologies for circular economies.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological restoration and biodiversity increase due to radical change in human-environment interactions.
Economic Impact: Decoupling of economic growth from resource consumption, prioritizing social and ecological well-being.
Political Impact: Emergence of decentralized governance structures and citizen-led initiatives prioritizing sustainability.
Narrative: A future where a fundamental shift in societal values and technological innovation leads to a truly ecological and resilient society.
