Imagined Future Scenarios
Climate Science, Probable Futures, Short Term (1 - 3 years)
Scenario Generated from 'The Fossil Fuels Conversation Needs a Hard Reset' - Wired
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased inequality and social unrest due to uneven access to alternative energy sources.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancement in renewable energy matched by increased resource extraction for technology production.
Ecological Impact: Continued ecological degradation despite some localized improvements, largely offset by overall growth.
Economic Impact: Significant economic restructuring with continued, albeit uneven, growth based on new energy infrastructure.
Political Impact: Increased geopolitical instability due to competition for critical minerals and energy resources.
Narrative: A future of continued growth, albeit a more environmentally conscious one, characterized by persistent inequalities and resource conflicts.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread social breakdown, mass migrations, and conflict over dwindling resources.
Technological Impact: Technological regress due to resource scarcity and infrastructure failures.
Ecological Impact: Severe ecological damage with widespread loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.
Economic Impact: Complete economic collapse with widespread poverty and famine.
Political Impact: The breakdown of existing political structures and the rise of authoritarianism or anarchy.
Narrative: A future of cascading failures leading to societal collapse due to the slow response to climate change and resource depletion.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Increased social control and limitations on individual freedoms in the name of climate stability.
Technological Impact: A focus on large-scale, centralized, and highly efficient renewable energy systems.
Ecological Impact: Stabilization or gradual improvement of ecological conditions through strict regulations and resource management.
Economic Impact: A planned economy focused on sustainability and resource efficiency often hindering innovation and personal wealth.
Political Impact: A highly centralized global governing body or a system of powerful national governments enforcing strict climate policies.
Narrative: A future characterized by strict global governance and potentially reduced individual freedoms in the pursuit of environmental stability.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Radical changes in social values and practices, prioritizing community and ecological resilience.
Technological Impact: Development of decentralized and sustainable technologies, coupled with a downscaling of resource consumption.
Ecological Impact: Significant ecological recovery and regeneration through the application of new technologies and societal shifts.
Economic Impact: Emergence of localized, circular economies prioritizing sustainability and social equity.
Political Impact: Emergence of new political systems prioritizing ecological sustainability and decentralized governance.
Narrative: A future driven by transformative societal and technological advancements that fundamentally reshape the relationship between humanity and the environment.
