Imagined Future Scenarios
Space Exploration, Plausible Futures, Long Term (5 - 10 years)
Scenario Generated from 'New Roadmap Sets the Stage for Nuclear-Powered Spacecraft by the 2030s' - Gizmodo.com
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Booming space-based economies create vast wealth and new social structures, but exacerbate existing inequalities.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in NEP technology and space infrastructure lead to exponential growth in asteroid mining and space industrialization.
Ecological Impact: Increased space-based resource extraction minimizes Earth's resource depletion but raises concerns about space debris and potential environmental impacts on asteroids.
Economic Impact: A new era of space capitalism emerges, driven by asteroid mining, fueling global economic expansion and potentially creating unprecedented wealth.
Political Impact: Increased competition for space resources leads to the formation of powerful spacefaring nations and new international space laws.
Narrative: Asteroid mining fuels a golden age of space colonization, marked by rapid economic growth and expanding space settlements.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Social unrest and resource wars erupt due to unequal distribution of asteroid-derived wealth and over-reliance on space-based resources.
Technological Impact: Over-exploitation of asteroid resources leads to supply chain disruptions and technological stagnation due to resource depletion.
Ecological Impact: Space debris and environmental damage from uncontrolled asteroid mining lead to catastrophic consequences for space settlements and potentially Earth.
Economic Impact: The space-based economy collapses, triggering widespread economic hardship and social chaos.
Political Impact: Global governance systems fail, leading to a fragmented and conflict-ridden world in both space and on Earth.
Narrative: Over-reliance on asteroid mining leads to economic collapse and widespread societal breakdown, threatening both space and terrestrial civilization.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: A highly regulated and planned space economy ensures equitable distribution of resources, prioritizing sustainability and social stability.
Technological Impact: NEP technology development is carefully managed to maximize efficiency and minimize environmental impact.
Ecological Impact: Stringent environmental regulations and sustainable practices minimize the ecological footprint of space resource extraction.
Economic Impact: A centrally planned economy manages asteroid mining resources and their distribution, ensuring fairness and stability.
Political Impact: A global or supranational authority governs space resource extraction and settlement activities to avoid conflict and promote sustainability.
Narrative: A unified global body oversees strictly regulated asteroid mining, prioritizing long-term sustainability and equitable resource distribution.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: A new societal paradigm emerges, prioritizing post-scarcity values and shifting humanity's focus towards exploration and deeper understanding of the cosmos.
Technological Impact: Breakthroughs in advanced automation and AI lead to a completely decentralized and self-regulating space-based economy.
Ecological Impact: Space resource extraction becomes seamlessly integrated with natural processes, ensuring the long-term sustainability of both space and terrestrial ecosystems.
Economic Impact: Traditional economic models are replaced by new systems prioritizing collaboration and resource sharing, transcending material limitations.
Political Impact: Traditional nation-states become less relevant as humanity embraces a new form of cosmic citizenship and shared governance.
Narrative: A paradigm shift towards post-scarcity thinking allows humanity to seamlessly integrate asteroid resources into a sustainable and collaborative future.
