Imagined Future Scenarios
Quantum Computing, Probable Futures, Medium Term (3 - 5 years)
Scenario Generated from 'Banks can’t wait for quantum advantage to start preparing for the quantum age' - Retailbankerinternational.com
Future Arc and Implications
Grow Arc
Social Impact: Increased reliance on quantum-resistant cryptography leads to greater digital security, but also heightened surveillance.
Technological Impact: Rapid advancements in both quantum computing and quantum-resistant cryptography drive economic growth and technological innovation.
Ecological Impact: Increased energy consumption from quantum computing and cryptography infrastructure strains resources.
Economic Impact: Massive investment in quantum technologies creates new industries and jobs, but also exacerbates existing economic inequalities.
Political Impact: Global competition for quantum technology dominance intensifies, leading to new international treaties and regulations.
Narrative: A future of exponential technological growth fueled by a quantum arms race and massive economic expansion.
Collapse Arc
Social Impact: Widespread societal unrest and distrust due to massive data breaches and loss of financial stability.
Technological Impact: Critical infrastructure collapses due to insufficient migration to quantum-resistant cryptography.
Ecological Impact: Environmental degradation worsens due to lack of resources and societal priorities shifting away from sustainability.
Economic Impact: Global financial systems crumble due to widespread cyberattacks and loss of confidence.
Political Impact: Governments struggle to maintain order amidst societal breakdown and loss of control.
Narrative: A dystopian future marked by widespread cyberattacks, economic meltdowns, and societal collapse due to unpreparedness for quantum threats.
Discipline Arc
Social Impact: Stricter regulations and control over data and technology to maintain order and prevent breaches.
Technological Impact: Government-led standardization of quantum-resistant cryptography and controlled quantum computing development.
Ecological Impact: Centralized planning in resource allocation leads to increased efficiency but potential sustainability trade-offs.
Economic Impact: Controlled economic growth and resource management to prevent instability, potentially stifling innovation.
Political Impact: Strong centralized governments with comprehensive surveillance capabilities control access to Quantum technologies.
Narrative: A future of strict regulation and managed technological development within a strongly centralized government framework.
Transform Arc
Social Impact: Emergence of decentralized, secure communication systems replacing existing vulnerable infrastructure.
Technological Impact: Post-quantum cryptography leads to revolutionary developments in secure communication and data management.
Ecological Impact: Focus shifts toward decentralized, sustainable resource management using quantum computing for optimization.
Economic Impact: The rise of novel cryptocurrencies and blockchain systems based on quantum-resistant algorithms reshapes finance.
Political Impact: Decentralized governance models and increased information transparency counter the consolidation of power.
Narrative: A transformative future characterized by novel cryptographic solutions and decentralized systems promoting security, transparency and sustainability.
